The upcoming reasoning applies for all of the players, no matter if you already have one or more teams in the competition. So, you definitely should read this through. For instance, me myself I have 6 teams in the competition since the first gameweek, and currently I’m thinking about the number of teams that I will construct before the start of the second gameweek. This all, although I had a pretty decent first round. From all six teams I scored 77,5 to 100 points, but now let’s get to the point.
Main reason: Overlay, overlay, overlay…
No matter whether you’re playing DFS, sports betting, poker, casino games or whatever, you should always look for overlay opportunities. Basically, games where your expected payout is more than your wager. In the long run you should be able to play these games profitably even though you could be just an average player. Sometimes these games are also called EV+, which means that the game has positive expected value for the player.
In Fanteam Premier League Season game there is huge guaranteed prize pot of 250 000 euros. Buy-in for one team is 25 euros, so it means the game is EV+ for the players until there’s 10 000 teams. Currently we are still not at 10 000, so basically expected value of every team that enters the tournament is more than 25 euros. Thus, on average every team is expected to get small win still. This of course isn’t the case in practice as only best teams will get rewarded, but you shouldn’t be too worried about your skills at this point. In the season game, pure luck also has its part and you have plenty of time to learn more about the game and the players.
How the late registration works?
In the season game you’re able to register your team until the start of gameweek 4. You will give some head start for the competitors, but it’s truly not that much as you might think. The rules say that late regs get compensation equal to 70% of the average points that other teams have got so far. For instance, average points for gameweek 1 were 78,8, so if you register a team before gameweek 2 you will be rewarded with 0,7*78,8 = 55.5 points.
Next, I’ll be telling you why it might even be clever to give small head start for competitors and how you can truly benefit from the late registration. How I see it, there’s two different options to benefit and you should think what suits you the best.
Two ways to approach
- Long game
First option is of course to concentrate on the whole season game. There are 38 gameweeks and others have now played just the first gameweek, so you still have 37 gameweeks to try to win your share of the pot. Did you know that even the position 1 250 will give you your stake back and reaching only position 750, you’d get profit of 15 euros? Reaching the 1st position would mean that you have 50 000 euros more than you currently have.
Main advantage that the late regs have is that they’ve already seen some games of the Premier League season and they should try to benefit from that. Thus, you should look for players that others didn’t realize to pick before the season, but who have already shown their potential to make great points. You should also look for cheap options that are likely to play. You could pick the players that others are likely going to take in their teams in upcoming gameweeks, so you’ll benefit when their prizes rise.
In Premier League season game, one of the most difficult things is to pick the team at the start of the season. There are so many new players, three new teams and it’s hard to say who are going to start for each team. What late regs have, is the information of the first games of the season, which is much more than what was known before the season. Maximizing the advantage of that information is the key to benefit from late registration in long season game.
- Short game
You can always choose to play for short game instead of the long season game. The prize structure is built so that each gameweek the top three will get rewarded: 1st 250€, 2nd 150€ and 3rd 50€. Thus, one reasonable approach is to optimize the team for your first gameweek and aim straight away for the 250€ prize. What a nice way to start the season that would be!
You could pick the defense of the two or three clubs that are most likely to keep clean sheets on next gameweek. Forwards and midfielders, you could choose from the teams that are likely to score lot of goals in next gameweek. This is advantage compared to already registered teams as they would probably need to do more than one transfer in order to try to optimize their team for the next gameweek. This would mean penalty points and that’s why so many won’t do it.
After your first round has gone, you can still decide to play for the long game if you like to. Other option would be to continue playing short games. You could for instance already start to optimize your team for September. In each month the best player will get rewarded with 1 000 euros and prizes continue up to the 19th rank. So, one short game tactic is to try to win the 1 000 euros in every month. Again, most of the players are trying to win the whole game (especially at the start of the season), so there’s not so much competition and optimizing of the teams in particular months at the start of the season. This would mean that you have reasonable chances to achieve the ranking, which would get you rewarded.
There’s one important thing you should keep in mind when playing short game. When you think you have lost your chances for the prizes of particular month, you could start optimizing your team for the next month. You can even do multiple transfers and get penalized as long as you don’t hurt the next month, which you’re again trying to win. In Fanteam, the point system is done so that the -4p penalty that you get from extra transfer will strain your points of the upcoming gameweek. Thus, you shouldn’t make too many extra transfers just before the next month is starting in order to keep your chances as high as possible.
I hope my reasoning gives some ideas for you and perhaps you’re willing to join me and thousands of others and compete for the prizes of 250 000€.
I hope you all best luck for the season!
We at Fanteam thank Santeri Ahtiainen for this guest article! You can find him on Twitter at @santeriahtiaine