In this week’s competition the SHU vs LIV early game is left out so we will not include the likes of Salah, Firmino or Mane in our team. Same goes for Sheffield United players.
As the obvious picks from Manchester City should not be worth a long discussion, we will concentrate on the possible differentials, which can produce points for your Fantasy Squad.
Although Spurs have been mediocre at best, they play Southampton at home on Saturday. They have conceded 9 goals so far which is not that bad, but Spurs are coming off a huge defeat against Leicester last GW. We expect this to be a high scoring game and there is only one guy we would spend our money to get into our team.
Son has already bagged 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games he played this season. He seems to be playing way higher and always finds his way into the box. He has an xG of 0.98 and an xA of 0.56 so he is over-performing his underlying stats and that’s because he is a clinical finisher. But let’s dig deeper: 16 goal attempts, 10 of which came from inside the box and 7 overall were on target. He averages an attempt every 22 minutes! So, he will get around 4 shots per game, 2 of them will be on target and what we want is at least one of them to be a goal. Southhampton does not have the best defence in the league, even though they have only conceded 9 goals in 6 games.
He comes a bit expensive this week (and for a good reason) at 12.8million.
They started the season slowly but built momentum quick and they are now sitting 3rd in the league. They have scored 8 goals, 7 of them were assisted and conceded 5 goals while maintaining just 1 clean sheet. If you haven’t noticed by now is that we are especially focusing on teams that are playing at home. We would like to focus on the 3 players below:
Vardy at 11.8m is Leicester’s top goalscorer with 3 goals in 6 matches. Newcastle have conceded 8 goals in the last 6 matches and 6 of those 8 came from away games. We are backing up Vardy to keep the scoring going against them at home. He is also overperforming his xG 1.16 and xA 0.82 and has a total of 9 goal attempts. Minutes per attempt is 60 minutes which seems discouraging, but Leicester already played Man Utd, Spurs and Chelsea already. We expect both his expected stats and other underlying stats to get better within a month, starting of course against Newcastle.
Maddison at 11.5m seems to pick up some pace as well. Giving the win to Leicester at the 85’ minute scoring his first goal of the season. This is not the first time that Maddison has returned points as he also has 2 assists so far this season. Maddison is the first player in the list that underperforms his xG of 1.88 but he overperforms his xA at 1.22. We are aware that he is flagged as injured in the game and we would wait till Friday after the press conferences. If he is fit, he certainly is in our team for this week’s 50k Weekly Monster.
We are trippling down in Leicester this week and will also choose a defender. It doesn’t matter who as we don’t expect for them to return any attacking returns (except for Pereira) so we will choose the cheapest option which is Soyuncu at 8.5m. Just 1 clean sheet this season might not be encouraging but we put our faith and money on their ability to retain one this GW.
The Blues are playing a weak attacking team who scored only 5 goals in 6 fixtures. So if you want to get a Chelsea defender then go on, we haven’t decided yet as Chelsea haven’t show any defensive competence as they failed to keep a single clean sheet this season and conceded 13 goals (only Norwich and Watford have conceded more goals than Chelsea). But we would argue that this is the clean sheet to keep, we don’t think Brighton are coming at Stamford Bridge to play Chelsea openly but they will most probably sit at the back and wait for a counter attack. And they will get their chance to counterattack 2 or 3 times but what is the possibility of them scoring? We would say slim, but you never know. At the end of the day is it worth it? We say yes, if you ran out of options. Just pick Alonso at 9.3m or the cheapest alternative.
There is one Chelsea player that has earned a place in our team and that’s Abraham at 12.8m. Chelsea have scored 12 goals in total this season and Tammy scored 7 of them including his first ever hat trick but no assist. He is overperforming his xG 3.25 by more than double although his xA is about right at 0.37. Tammy has scored in every possible way with 6 goals inside the box (1 headed) and one from outside the box. He has 18 goal attempts and his shot accuracy is 50% and his conversion rate is 38.9%. Are you convinced yet?
We would like to close our analysis with 2 more forwards options. Pick one of them wisely and listen to your gut feeling!
He started this season hot by scoring 4 of the team’s 8 goals but hasn’t scored in Burnley’s last 3 matches. He is still overperforming his xG of 2.32 and his xA is about right at 0.19. Has a shot accuracy of 43% and a goal conversion of 19% which is not that bad. Barnes has a massive attempt count of 21! This is Burnley’s last favourable fixture at home (playing against Aston Villa) for a long run.
A player that needs no introduction. 6 goals and 2 assists in 6 games collecting 51 pts behind only Aguero and Kdb. Overperforming his xG of 2.77 by a mile and his xA of 1.50. What I really like about him is that he has 21 total goal attempts with just 25 minutes per attempt, shot accuracy of 66.7% and a goal conversion of 28.6%! My only problem with Pukki is that he has just one goal and no assists in 3 away games. You might say that he is playing against Crystal Palace but stats speak for themselves.