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NFL

NFL Super Sunday building blocks (13. October 19:00)

Welcome to another edition of NFL Super Sunday building blocks! After a couple of top-30 finishes two weeks ago, I’ve managed to grab the first two places last Sunday with a lineup that included multiple players I was raving about in the weekly article (fireworks!). We are not stopping here, and I’ll try to do my best to continue giving out some helpful tips. If you have any feedback regarding this post or the series, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@wiseguychrome) with comments and suggestions!

QBs & Stacks

I’m expecting to spend up in QB this week, as besides the top few options, there is only one cheaper QB that I really like. Last week proved (again) that taking the chalk QB is not always the worst choice.

High-end: Lamar Jackson (22.7M)

Lamar Jackson is coming off the worst game of his career and now gets to face a defensively flawed Cincinnati team, in Baltimore. Laying 12 points, the Ravens are the most significant betting favorite on the board, and while Jackson is expensive, his main targets are incredibly affordable. To me, Baltimore is the top stack this weekend.

Pair with: Mark Andrews TE (12.0M) & Mark Ingram RB (13.9M)

Mid-tier: Matt Ryan (20.1M) & Kyler Murray (19.5M)

Matt Ryan and Kyler Murray are facing each other this weekend. I love both QB’s and will probably build teams around both, but Murray has way cheaper targets, so I’d prefer him over his Atlanta counterpart. Murray has one of the highest floors, as through five weeks, his worst score was 16.3 fantasy points. The Falcons defense ranks bottom-three in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Pivoting to Ryan, who should be a less popular choice, is perfectly fine.

Pair Ryan with: Julio Jones WR (19.7M) & Austin Hooper TE (13.6M)

Pair Murray with: Larry Fitzgerald WR (14.6M) & David Johnson RB (17.8M) [if he plays]

Budget: Kirk Cousins (15.6M)

My budget pick this week is once again, Kirk Cousins. The funnel defense of the Eagles will keep me off Cook, but the fact that Philly has allowed the fifth-most passing yards so far this season makes Cousins and his two WRs a great option. People won’t go to him, as he is labeled as a lousy passer (he is average at worst), and the Eagles defense is highly valued in the eye of the public.

Pair with: Adam Thielen WR (15.6M) & Stefon Diggs WR (12.9M)

Also consider: Russel Wilson (19.0M)

Russel Wilson is in the midst of an MVP campaign, and the Seahawks get to face a Cleveland team that is on short rest and has been humiliated by the San Francisco run game. You can draft Wilson’s favorite targets (Lockett, Dissly) cheap, and RB Chris Carson is also affordable.

Fade: Dak Prescott (18.6M)

I think the Jets defense is decent, and I’d expect a lower scoring game from the Dallas side. Prescott also didn’t look good for weeks now, yet he is still priced among the elite QBs of the slate. If you pick one player from this Dallas squad, then go with Ezekiel Elliott (and take the Cowboys DST) over Prescott!

RB

High-end: Alvin Kamara (19.9M)

Cheat code Christian McCaffrey is not an option this week, but we have Kamara in a spot where he shouldn’t be too popular, given his high price. Alvin is coming off a relatively weak game but gets to face the Jags, who have the second-worst tackling grade in the league. Kamara also has the most missed tackles in the whole NFL. A pretty good correlation of stats if you ask me!

Low ownership: Le’Veon Bell (18.9M)

Bell has an over 60% share of the Jets’ offensive touches. That is the highest share of any player on any team. With Sam Darnold expected to be back, his upside skyrockets. The Jets are also home dogs to a relatively popular Dallas squad, making Bell a sneaky choice. If you stay off the Cowboys defense, then taking Bell isn’t the worst pick.

Budget: Chris Carson (15.2M)

Chris Carson was a fade candidate through the first few weeks as he struggled through several games and had multiple bad fumbles. His price dropped after the early struggles, and he still costs only 15.2M, even after putting up 18.5 and 19.3 points through the last two weeks. As I said before, this Cleveland run defense is terrible, and you shouldn’t think twice about starting a stud like Carson against them.

Also consider: Leonard Fournete (17.8M), Nick Chubb (18.3M), Mark Ingram (13.9M)

Fade: Dalvin Cook (19.6M)

The Eagles defense excels at stopping the run, and while Cook should still be somewhat productive, the 19.6M price is just a tough pill to swallow as the game script likely won’t favor him.

WR

High-end: DeAndre Hopkins (18.8M)

Hopkins was by far the most popular WR pick last week, and the Houston star WR turned in a relatively average performance, especially compared to teammate Will Fuller. We’ve got a slight price decrease on D-Hop, and I’m jumping back on the wagon against a bottom-five overall defense in KC.

Low ownership: Odell Beckham Jr (15.6M)

No one will start Odell Beckham Jr. this week. The price decrease on the once highly rated WR has been insane, but he is still the same guy we all love. The talent is here, the receptions are there, and the TDs will eventually come. At 15.6M, you can pick way worse wide receivers than him!

Budget: Larry Fitzgerald (14.6M)

Larry Fitzgerald is way too cheap here. The Arizona star WR hasn’t scored since week three, and he only has one touchdown through the season, but Fitzgerald is by far the primary target for Murray, and the price isn’t reflecting this. Facing this weak Atlanta defense also helps a lot. I will have Larry in most of my teams.

Also consider: D.J. Chark (13.1M) & Dede Westbrook (11.8M) & Mohamed Sanu (11.1M)

Fade: Amari Cooper (17.0M)

Amari Cooper’s price isn’t justified against a Jets team that has only allowed five passing touchdowns through the first four weeks of the season. Cooper is also coming off an insanely productive game and should be very highly owned. Personally, I’m taking my money elsewhere.

TE

High-end: Austin Hooper (13.6M)

Austin Hooper is the bomb. We’ve already discussed multiple times, that the Cardinals defense is allowing the highest number of fantasy points against opposing tight ends, and Hooper is also top-five player at the TE position in targets, receptions, and yards as well. You are paying a premium here, but the volume should be there.

Low ownership: Mark Andrews (12.0M)

I’m high on the whole Baltimore squad this week, but I can’t fault you if you only go with Mark Andrews as a one-off. Andrews has a relatively modest price considering he has 77.1 fantasy points through the season. Cincinnati’s defense can’t stop anyone, and this should be another 15-20 point game for the Ravens TE.

Budget: Gerald Everett (7.6M)

Brandin Cooks was limited in practice on Thursday. If he is out, Gerald Everett’s target share should skyrocket. Everett was involved in the passing game through the last two weeks, and he is one of the better cheap pass catching TE’s you will find out there. The Rams are solid home favorites against a San Francisco team that has faced questionable competition so far. Not the worst punt, in my opinion.

Fade: Delaine Walker (9.6M)

Walker and the Titans offense as a whole have been extremely disappointing through the season. Despite being relatively high-priced for the TE position, Walker has posted 3.4 total fantasy points over the last two weeks. Tennessee is a complete fade this week, facing an elite defense in Denver.

DST

High-end: Dallas (11.6M)

We don’t have the New England defense on the slate, so our best option is to fade the Jets, who will finally get their primary QB back, but still lack too many offensive threats besides Bell. Dallas is the second-largest betting favorite on the board, and the Jets only have a 17.5 point expected team total. QB Sam Arnold is coming off a battle with mononucleosis, and you cannot be sure if he is really close to 100%. I’ll probably pivot to Denver or Baltimore, but Dallas isn’t a bad expensive option if you can afford them.

Low ownership: Denver (10.8M)

Denver is a very slight home favorite against a bottom-five offense in the league. Marcus Mariota is a below-average QB with well below-average targets, and at 40.5, this game has the lowest expected Vegas total on the whole board. It is never a bad idea to take a Broncos defense that should be overlooked by players looking for the likes of Minnesota and the LA Rams.

Fade: Washington (11.9M)

Washington is the highest priced DST on the slate, and while they are facing Miami, it is probably the most winnable game for the Dolphins this whole season. This is their Super Bowl. I also don’t see why the Washington defense should score that big, and the Dolphins offense still has some decent weapons in Williams, Parker, and Drake.

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