NFL

NFL Super Sunday building blocks (20. October 19:00)

Welcome to another edition of NFL Super Sunday building blocks! We have a hugely successful weekend behind us with several top-30 finishes for myself, and a top 3 finish for one of our regular readers. Thankfully, if you stuck to the player pool the blog post was suggesting; it was pretty difficult not to show some kind of profit. The work doesn’t stop here. Let’s get to this week’s slate! If you have any feedback regarding this post or the series, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@wiseguychrome) with comments and suggestions!

QBs & Stacks

After mostly sticking to high-end QB-choices last week, we have a much better selection of arms in the mid-tier for week seven. For the first time in the last few weeks, I could see myself having only a couple of shares of the suggested high-end arm (Goff), and mostly taking the savings with the cheaper options.

High-end: Jared Goff (18.5M)

After turning in a 1.1 point fantasy performance against the 49ers, we will buy low on Goff this week. The Rams game has the highest expected Vegas total, and LA is favored by three points, making Goff & Co. the most probable high-scoring stack out there according to the bookmakers. We also get a massive discount on not just our QB, but his two primary receivers as well, as neither are coming off good games. The Falcons have 6 total pressures in the last two weeks, and I’d expect a great bounce-back game and at least 3 TDs for Goff in this spot.

Pair with: Cooper Kupp WR (17.5M) & Brandin Cooks WR (13.1M)

Mid-tier: Daniel Jones (17.3M)

New York, New York! Daniel Jones gets to face the 23rd ranked defense in the league and after putting up just 5.2 points against the Patriots. The most significant selling point with Jones is the fact that most of his offensive weapons are returning this week with Saquon Barkley & Evan Engram both expected to play (and Sterling Shepard having a decent shot as well). Arizona is a decent stack in the same matchup, but the Giants are at home, they have extra rest and overall seem like the safer choice than a Cardinals team that should see some regression offensively.

Pair with: Golden Tate WR (11.7M) & Evan Engram TE (13.2M). Draft Shepard over Tate if he plays.

Budget: Matt Stafford (15.8M) & Philip Rivers (15.86)

My budget picks are once again overlooked players in challenging matchups. Matt Stafford and the Lions are coming off a short week facing a top 10 defense in Minnesota. Still, Stafford and his receivers have shown to be capable, and the market is simply too high on this Minnesota defense. The Detroit stack should not be this cheap. The other budget QB I like this week is Philip Rivers. The Chargers are facing off against a top defense in Tennessee, but both Rivers & his primary targets got discounted more than they should have. They are my favorite cheap stack this weekend.

Pair Stafford with: Kenny Golladay WR (14.8M) & T.J. Hockenson TE (7.9M)

Pair Rivers with: Mike Williams WR (11.8M) & Hunter Henry TE (9.8M)

Fade: Josh Allen (18.1M)

Miami has the worst defense in the league, but Josh Allen only has five touchdown passes through the yar and has never thrown for more than 260 yards in an NFL game. The Bills average just 5.50 yards per play and are the 27th ranked overall offense by PFF. Even in a great matchup, they are just not worth the risk, in my opinion.

RB

High-end: Saquon Barkley (20.2M)

The top end is pretty bleak when it comes to RB this week. Alvin Kamara isn’t healthy, Dalvin Cook should be in a tightly contested game that could turn out to be lower scoring. This leaves us with superhuman Saquan Barkley, who faces the 19th ranked run defense in Arizona. The Cards are allowing 133 rushing yards per game, and Barkley should be playing close to 100% of the snaps here.

Mid-tier: Devonta Freeman (14.7M)

As I wrote before, the Falcons – Rams derby should turn out to be a high-scoring shootout, and while most players will prefer the WR-core, Julio Jones is just too expensive to feature him in most teams. With Devonta Freeman, we are buying an essential piece of this high-powered offense at a much lower price. The Falcons are still running the ball at a decent rate, and Freeman did firmly lock down his #1 spot in the team with last week’s 26.8 fantasy point performance.

Budget: Todd Gurley (10.8M) [if he plays]

Sean McVay said on Thursday that Gurley has an excellent shot at playing on Sunday. With Malcolm Brown’s health being also questionable, I’d expect Gurley to play about 60-70% of the snaps. In a matchup with a huge upside, this 10.8M price is very low even with this reduced workload. If Gurley is out, you should pivot to rookie RB Darrell Henderson!

Also consider: Leonard Fournete (18.3M), Marlon Mack (13.4M)

Fade: Alvin Kamara (19.4M)

Kamara didn’t practice on Thursday, and while I could see the team deciding to let him play, he is clearly not 100%. The star RB hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points in three straight games, yet we would still need to pay a premium for him. Stick to cheaper options!

WR

High-end: Michael Thomas (18.5M)

Thomas is coming off his second-worst fantasy Sunday so far this season, resulting in a slight price decrease on the stud WR. With a floor of 16.4 points so far in six weeks, it is hard not to consider him here. With Kamara struggling and being possibly out, Thomas and the passing game should become the clear focus for Teddy Bridgewater, who did finally started throwing deeper passes.  It isn’t an easy matchup for Thomas against a highly-rated Bears defense, but elite players should be drafted in difficult matchups as well. Thomas always has a slate-breaking upside.

Mid-tier: D.J. Chark (14.5M)

D.J. Chark did disappear last week, putting up only 7.3 points against New Orleans, as Marshon Lattimore shadowed him. Coming off this season-low performance, Chark gets to face a Cincinnati squad that still haven’t shadowed anyone all season and has a 47 PFF coverage grade (that is the 4th worst in the league). The price isn’t nearly high enough considering how great this matchup is.

Budget: Allen Lazard (6.2M)

The Green Bay receiving core is struggling with injuries, and Lazard is coming off a 16.5 fantasy point game against a decent defense in Detroit. The Packers are sizeable home favorites against a middling Oakland team, and with Allison and Adams likely out for this contest, he should be included in most teams.

Also consider: Cooper Kupp (17.5M), Stefon Diggs (13.5M), Calvin Ridley (13.5M)

Fade: DeAndre Hopkins (19.1M)

DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t lived up to his price for weeks now. I could see myself putting him in a contrarian lineup, but if you only draft one or two teams, you should go with players with higher floors than him. The price point – after several middling games – is just not justified.

TE

High-end: Austin Hooper (14.2M)

Our high-end option is once again Austin Hooper. Hooper leads Atlanta in targets (over Julio Jones), leads all tight ends in receptions, and has the most fantasy points in the position through the season at 110. He is still not the highest priced TE on the slate, which is mind-blowing to me. Hooper should be on your team, period.

Mid-tier: Evan Engram (13.2M)

Engram is much more of a 1B option to Hoopers 1A than just a secondary play. He ha a 22.5% target share and gets to face an Arizona team that allows the most receptions & yards against TEs with 7 touchdowns already. While there are players out there who doubt that this Arizona versus tight ends trend is meaningful in the long run, I say that at the relatively low price of 13.2M you should ride the wave with Engram.

Budget: Hunter Henry (9.8M)

Hunter Henry did return from injury to put up 30 fantasy points against Pittsburgh last week, yet he is still only the 6th highest-priced TE on the slate. The Chargers have shifted focus from spamming Keenan Allen with passes to a more spread-out approach, and that should benefit Henry as well.

Also consider: T.J Hockenson (7.9M)

We did use rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson earlier this year, and his price is finally once again at a point where it is fair to buy low on him. The Lions are very slight home dogs in a matchup that should be competitive and could see Hockenson with a high reception count. At 7.9M, you could do much worse than taking a flyer on the youngster!

DST

High-end: Buffalo (11.7M)

The Buffalo defense already has 12 sacks and 5 interceptions this season, plus the Bills get to face a Miami team that is last in the league among all main offensive metrics. 11.7M for defense is really expensive, but you have a 15-point upside here.

Low ownership: New Orleans (10.2M)

The New Orleans defense is priced outside of the top 10 here, despite facing a bottom-five offense in the Bears. The Saints have 18 sacks and 3 interceptions this season and are guaranteed to be a low-owned top scoring option on this Sunday slate.

Budget: Miami (8.6M)

Most of the time, you won’t have too much left to spend on defense, and Miami comes in handy as a punt option. While the Dolphins defense hasn’t been precisely good so far with just 5 sacks and 1 interception (and allowing 35+ points already two times), this Bills offense is by far the worst they have faced so far this season. This is strictly a punt option, but we have so many better spots to spend our money this week than DST, that I wouldn’t mind rolling with Miami.

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