Football

The Weekly Monster – Player Projections for GW9

Captain candidates

Twitter is usually full of captain speculation before each gameweek. This week is no different. Players that I’ve seen mostly considered for FPL captaincy are Abraham, Callum Wilson, Sterling, Aubameyang and Kane. My two candidates for Fanteam Weekly Monster can be found in this top 5.

My first choice is Callum Wilson (11.8M) for whom my model gives highest xFT (expected Fanteam points) of 7.76. High quality striker playing home game against Norwich can’t be bad choice if the first 8 gameweeks have taught us anything.

If you’re not willing to go with Callum, then my second suggestion would be Aubameyang (11.5M) with 7.26 xFT. He’s slighlty cheaper than Wilson, but not that much behind in xFT. Kane (12.8M) is not that much behind either in xFT but might not be worthy with the higher price. Abraham (13.5M) on the other hand is far behind as my model is giving him only 6.36 xFT. With that price it means that Abraham is one of the mostly overvalued players for the gameweek.

Best value per million

I’m very happy to reveal that out of Top 50 players for the round, my model gives best value per million for Pukki (8.6M). As a fellow Finn, I would be very happy if we can again experience some magic of PukkiParty. Scoring two against Armenia in international break could mean that Pukki is back in track (if he ever even was off from it). My model is giving him xFT of 6.71, which means I expect him to return 0.78 points per M. With that value it’s hard to see past Pukki in this round (at least for me).

Few more players to consider

6.36 (xFT) – Vardy (11.8M)

5.60 – Ricardo Pereira (9.3M)

5.37 – McGinn (9.2M)

5.03 – Leno (7.9M)

4.96 – Tomori (9.6M)

Couple words about xFT and the model

You probably think how I’m calculating the expected points for each player. My model basically takes into account all the things for which Fanteam gives points and calculates probabilities for each player getting points of different things (goals, assists, cards etc.). I’ve been running quite similar model for FPL from season 17/18 with reasonably good forecasting results.

What is important to notice, is that although FPL and Fanteam are quite similar in rules, there are still small differences that might make the difference. For instance, Callum Wilson is my first choice for captain in Fanteam, but in FPL he would be only my fifth choice. Interesting, isn’t it?

I’ll provide further insight in coming weeks, so stay tuned.

Ps. Sometimes you can also find some valuable tips in twitter @santeriahtiaine

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