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NFL

NFL Super Sunday building blocks (03. November 19:00)

Welcome to another edition of NFL Super Sunday building blocks! This week we have the trickiest slate on tap so far this season. As there are tons of ugly games that are projected to be low-scoring, it is pretty hard to find value on the board. The high-end options are costly, and the low-end options have a minimal upside. As usual, I will do my best to provide some sort of value. Let’s dive in! If you have any feedback regarding this post or the series, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@wiseguychrome) with comments and suggestions!

QBs & Stacks

High-end: Matthew Stafford (17.9M)

We are fading the chalk this week on most fronts, including QB. While Russell Wilson should be the undisputed #1 QB option on Sunday, he is extremely expensive, and with a couple of positions worth spending up at, it is pretty challenging to find the budget to Wilson in. Thankfully our favorite QB, Matt Stafford got a price decrease, and his number one target, Kenny Golladay got cheaper as well. Stafford is averaging 25 fantasy points through the last two weeks and is getting a decent matchup against Oakland, a team that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing QB’s. Detroit is also 4th in pass DVOA, and Stafford’s receivers have been putting up quality numbers as well.

Pair with: Kenny Golladay WR (16.0M) & Marvin Jones WR (13.3M).

Mid-tier: Derek Carr (16.7M)

We are sticking to the same game, especially as it has a healthy 50.5 expected Vegas total. Derek Carr has been pretty trustworthy so far this season with just two sub-10 point games in 8starts. He is also coming off a 23.4-point effort against Texas, his best start of the season. What really makes me love Carr this week is the fact that his #1 receiver in Tyrell Williams is extraordinarily cheap, and Oakland TE Darren Waller is just an all-around great core play as one of the most trustworthy tight ends in the league.

Pair with: Tyrell Williams (13.0M) & Darren Waller (14.8M)

Budget: Mitch Trubisky (15.5M)

Mitch Trubisky is average at best, but he gets a fantastic matchup here. The Eagles secondary is one of the worst squads in the league and Philly allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and second-most to opposing wide receivers. Trubisky’s favorite target, Allen Robinson is also very affordable at just 15.3M.

Pair with: Allen Robinson (15.3M)

Fade: Kirk Cousins (17.6M)

Kirk Cousins should be a popular option going against the trainwreck that is the Kansas City defense. Still, with Pat Mahomes probably sitting the game out, it is fair to expect Minnesota to get up early and stay up through the rest of the game. In that case, Cousins will hand off most of the balls to Dalvin Cook instead of passing to his receivers. I won’t have any pieces of this offense besides the already mentioned RB.

RB

High-end: Dalvin Cook (20.9M)

You simply cannot pay 24.2M for Christian McCaffrey. Dalvin Cook has a very similar upside at a much lower price, so a pivot is highly recommended. The Minnesota RB leads the league in carries this season, and Kansas City is 28th in DVOA against the run. Cook has a high floor and a slate-breaking upside.

Mid-tier: Nick Chubb (17.6M)

Chubb is my favorite RB of the week as we get another substantial discount ‘downgrading’ from Cook to him. Chubb is facing Denver, a team that has benched Joe Flacco and is trading pieces left and right. It is pretty fair to expect 20+ touches here, especially as Cleveland should be in the driver’s seat for most of this game.

Budget: Josh Jacobs (15.1M)

Through eight weeks, Detroit is the team that has given up the most fantasy points against running backs. The Lions have the 25th best run defense and grade 31st in tackling. Oakland is the 4th best team at rushing and 12th best at OL run blocking. Jacobs is in a great spot, and the price is more than friendly.

Also consider: Philip Lindsay (14.0M), Austin Ekeler (13.1M)

Fade: Chris Carson (18.5M)

Carson was my favorite RB for the last few weeks, but Tampa Bay is leading the league at limiting running backs, giving up only 69 rushing yards per game. Wilson will pass the ball, and I’d be surprised if Carson gets too much volume. He is simply not worth drafting at the asking price.

WR

High-end: Kenny Golladay (16.0M)

Besides a week seven letdown against a premiere offense in Minnesota, Kenny Golladay has been extremely consistent and trustworthy. Golladay is coming off a 123-yard, 2TD game and faces an Oakland squad allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game against WRs. With Kerryon Johnson injured and Golladay’s price still staying below 17.0M, he is a must-play in all teams.

Mid-tier: D.K. Metcalf (13.1M)

Talk about a bargain! D.K. Metcalf is in the top three in the league when it comes to end zone targets (he has 11) and has played 94% of the snaps last week. He faces Tampa Bay in a game that has the highest Vegas total on the whole board. Additionally, the Buccaneers allow the fourth-most points against wide receivers in the entire league.

Budget: D.J. Moore (12.9M)

I loved both of Carolina’s WRs coming into this week, but it seems like Curtis Samuel is trending towards not playing this week. The Panthers are solid home favorites against a Titans defense that has been somewhat of an overachiever according to advanced metrics. With an increased expected road, Carolina’s clear number one option in Moore is enormously underpriced at 12.9M.

Also consider: JuJu Smith-Schuster (14.1M)

Fade: Adam Thielen (15.6M)

As I wrote before, we can fully expect Minnesota to favor the run game in this spot. While Thielen’s price is pretty friendly, the matchup is just not the right one. You are better off finding the money for Cook if you want to buy a piece of this Minnesota offense.

TE

High-end: Darren Waller (14.8M)

Darren Waller is the man in the tight end position. Consistency is tough to find here, and Waller’s worst game was 7.9 points, with his total score being 114.3 through 8 weeks. The volume is guaranteed every single week, and the Raiders are home favorites in a game that is expected to be super high scoring.

Mid-tier: Greg Olsen (9.6M)

Greg Olsen won’t blow your socks off, but similarly to D.J. Moore, he is underpriced here, especially considering he plays 100% of the snaps. Olsen faces a great matchup, and with Curtis Samuel likely missing the game, he should enjoy an increased target count.

Budget: Dallas Goedert (6.1M)

Zach Ertz is the bust of the season when it comes to the tight end position. Ertz only has a total score of 85.4 in eight weeks, and Goedert (who costs 7.1M less) has played 76, 69, and 55% of the snaps through the last three weeks, seeing 17 targets. He is the cheapest TE I’d go this week.

Also consider: Hunter Henry (13.2M)

DST

High-end 1: Cleveland (11.0M)

The Cleveland Browns have flipped from small betting underdogs to 3-point road favorites with the benching of Joe Flacco. Denver will start Brandon Allen, who has no NFL starts under his belt. With a terrible coach at the helm of the team, it is fair to expect less than 14 points from this squad. Cleveland is a excellent DST choice this week that has a solid shot at earning you more than 15+ points.

High-end 2: New York Jets (10.9M)

Whenever a defense faces Miami, you should consider drafting them. The Jets are a top-15 team when it comes to team defense grade, and defensive DVOA, while they are also facing a great matchup this Sunday. The Dolphins are not just averaging the least points in the NFL, but they are also allowing the highest number of fantasy points to opposing defenses. If you feel that Cleveland will be the chalk this week, the Jets DST is an excellent pivot at a slightly lower price!

Budget: Miami (9.9M)

We’ve seen the Jets offense struggling through the last few weeks, and while Miami’s DST is less than impressive, Sam Darnold is throwing interceptions while giving up sacks left and right. If you run out of your budget before drafting a DST, Miami is a fine option with some sort of ceiling. I don’t think the Dolphins will give up more than 21 points this week.

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