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NFL Super Sunday building blocks (17. November 19:00)

Welcome to another edition of NFL Super Sunday building blocks! The blog post team had its worst week of the season last Sunday, but we are back with a banger! There are 10+ legitimate choices in most positions besides QB, making it pretty easy to draft an affordable all-star squad for this interesting slate. Let’s dive in! If you have any feedback regarding this post or the series, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@wiseguychrome) with comments and suggestions!

QBs & Stacks

High-end: Drew Brees (19.5M)

Drew Brees is the man who draws the 29th ranked pass defense of Tampa Bay this week. The Buccaneers are a rare breed with great defense against the run, but a putrid secondary and one of the worst defenses against the pass. This sets up well for Brees, who is expected to throw a ball a lot more this Sunday, and it is not like his volume was low to start with. The Saints QB had 40 passing attempts in the two weeks since his return from injury. This matchup is making him the safest high-end choice on the slate.

Pair with: Michael Thomas (23.3M) & Jared Cook (9.4M)

Mid-tier: Tom Brady (18.4M)

Tom Brady has been quietly impressive this season, yet his price is still very affordable, and the primary receivers in Edelman and Sanu are also close to the lower ends of the midrange in pricing. The Pats will face an Eagles secondary that has its fair share of injuries, and it wasn’t too elite to start with. Philly is also in the bottom five squads when it comes to points allowed for opposing QBs. New England are road favorite on Sunday and this 3-pack is a great deal, especially considering that you are buying the best team in football at a low, low price. 

Pair with: Julian Edelman (16.9M) & Mohamed Sanu (11.6M)

Budget: Kyle Allen (17.2M)

While I’m not a massive Kyle Allen fan, it is hard to ignore the success the Carolina backup is having. The Panthers are also home chalk against a Falcons team that ranks 31st against the pass allowing 372 passing yards per game. D.J. Moore had 30 targets over the last three weeks, and he has an amazing upside against an Atlanta team that cannot tackle. Greg Olsen is also one of the most underrated players in the tight end position. You are saving about 10 million over other QB + WR1 + TE packages that will score similarly to this one. 

Pair with: D.J. Moore (15.3M) & Greg Olsen (10.1M)

Also consider: Jameis Winston (18.1M)

Fade: Josh Allen (18.8M)

We are not paying these types of prices for a struggling QB in Josh Allen. Yes, the Bills are 6-point road favorites, but Allen is barely averaging 16 fantasy points this season, and this game in Miami only has a 41 Vegas total. Fade both squads! 

RB

High-end: Dalvin Cook (21.4M)

The price of CMC got into unreachable heights this week, so we are not going to draft the Panthers standout. With Dalvin Cook, we get a slightly lower ceiling, but a pretty sturdy floor. Cook has an insane usage rate already and is leading the league with 991 yards and a touchdown in all but two games this season. He is the perfect high-end option against a Denver team that is just average on the defensive end.

Mid-tier: Josh Jacobs (16.8M)

Josh Jacobs is way too cheap considering the matchup. The Raiders are rare 10.5-point favorites against the 0-9 Bengals. Jacobs has a 20-touch upside here, and it is essential to note that he ranks third among all players in expected TD percentage with 32%. The Raiders also have the highest implied point total this week with almost 30 points. Jacobs is a must draft in all of your lineups. 

Budget: Marlon Mack (13.6M)

We are buying a fantastic player in a decent matchup at a very low price with Mack. Indianapolis puts up the 8th most expected points per run, while Jacksonville allows the 6th mots expected points on running plays. Mack has a 114.9 total score through ten weeks and is your perfect floor-play for this weekend.

Fade: Alvin Kamara (19.2M)

Alvin Kamara is never fully healthy, and he gets to face a top-3 run defense this weekend in a game where the game script will more than likely revolve around throwing the football. I’d need him to be priced in the 15M range even to consider drafting him. Stay away!

WR

High-end: Julio Jones (19.2M)

Julio Jones is the quiet killer this weekend as basically no one talks about Atlanta’s amazing WR1. I’m fully expecting Matt Ryan to play, and these two have a great connection. Jones enters the week with 53 catches and almost 15 yards per reception. He is also firmly in the top 30 of the league when it comes to expected fantasy points per game. Jones’s upside also went up with Mohamed Sanu getting traded and Hooper out with an injury.

Mid-tier: Mike Evans (17.7M)

Mike Evans was everyone’s darling last week (we were also on him), yet he disappointed with just 12.2 fantasy points against the lowly Cardinals. He is still 6th in the whole league among all positions when it comes to expected fantasy points added  and draws a matchup against New Orleans, where not many will go to him. Remember! Elite players are matchup-proof, and Evans is no exception. This price is simply too low for the two-touchdown upside! 

Budget: Terry McLaurin (12.6M)

Our good old friend Terry McLaurin has been a no-show for weeks, and his price came down quite a bit. He has 80 total yards in the last three weeks, but is coming off a bye week and gets to face a New York Jets squad that allows 344 yards per game and has allowed touchdowns against Preston Williams, Golden Tate among others through the last two games. Washington is also an unexpected betting favorite against New York, and their best scoring threat on the field is, without a doubt McLaurin!

Also consider: Deebo Samuel (10.9M)

TE

High-end: Greg Olsen (10.1M)

Not a lot of players offer multi-TD upside in tight end, but Greg Olsen has seen 16 targets through the last two weeks and faces an Atlanta squad that has been struggling defensively throughout the whole season. 10.1M isn’t cheap considering the position, but Olsen has similar upside to a decent WR2, and you pay a WR3 price.

Mid-tier: Jared Cook (9.4M)

Jared Cook is my favorite tight end this week. Cook gets to face a Tampa Bay team that has a bottom-five pass defense and is the second-worst team in the league when it comes to fantasy points allowed against the TE position. Cook has also seen season-high in targets, receptions, and yards in his first week back from injury. I’d expect around ten targets in this game. Touchdown-upside at its finest! 

Budget: Kyle Rudolph (7.3M)

With star WR Adam Thielen out of the lineup, the upside of TE Kyle Rudolph has skyrocketed. Since Thielen got injured, Rudolph is averaging four catches and 28 yards per game, and while that isn’t too many, he is a primary red-zone target. There are four touchdowns in three games to his name, and at 7.3M he is priced as a punt play.

DST

High-end 1: Buffalo (11.6M)

Miami has the lowest implied team total on the board, yet we have to pay less than 12M for the DST against them? Buffalo is the 8th ranked defense by PFF and the Bills have only given up more than 20 points just three times this whole season. Buffalo has already faced Miami this season, their DST did put up 11 points back then. I’d be okay with that in this spot.

High-end 2: Oakland (11.2M)

The 0-9 Bengals have the lowest implied team total on the board with Ryan Finley only starting his second game in the league (he did put up 8.9 fantasy points in his first start). Cincinnati is only ranked 29th in the league owning negative EPA per play and per pass as well, putting up only 4.80 yards per game. Oakland’s DST isn’t cheap, but they are a good pick his weekend! 

Budget: Miami (9.3M)

We are going back to the Buffalo game as that contest only has a 41 expected Vegas total this weekend. Miami is a 6-point underdog, but we’ve seen Josh Allen struggle offensively. The Dolphins DST is also coming off an eight and an 11-point game and two wins in a row. At 9.3M, you cannot ask for more in a position where finding upside is not easy.

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