Our expert @santeriahtiaine tells you which players to have an eye on when picking your captain! Do you agree? Comment with your pick and your username to win 1 of 5 free tickets for the Weekly Monster – each worth 20€!
Learning points from GW12
GW12 was the first round for weeks that I couldn’t fit Teemu Pukki in my Weekly Monster team. And why was that? Because Norwich played against Watford already on Friday, so the game wasn’t included in WM. Otherwise I would’ve still picked Pukki, who blanked once again in Premier League.
Norwich is wandering in deep waters and it seems they just can’t give you attacking returns anymore. Perhaps it’s time for me to forget Pukki for a while then. It’s just so difficult. Again, three goals at EURO qualifications, underpriced in WM week after week and now he is going to be a big differential for next GW. I honestly have no idea what I’m going to do with him this week.
What else did we learn besides that Norwich are currently on their way back to Championship? Well, Deulofeu is rising to save Watford and maybe finding his way to considerations for Weekly Monster? Abraham continues to deliver, but is it time to admit that Pulisic > Mount? Burnley strikers waking up at the same time? Richarlison finally providing good points with good stability. Sheffield United and Leicester are the surprises of the early season, don’t underestimate them, but keep your eye on the potential of taking a stance against them as well. Those teams might be overvalued in eyes of WM managers based only on their current form.
For GW12 my participation for WM actually consisted only of one 52,5€ H2H tournament. Being not able to pick Pukki worked well for me. Vardy, Rashford, Mane, Richarlison and co. got me 65,5 points, which was enough to beat my competitor who got 56 points. Almost doubled my wager, so can’t be unhappy for this uncommonly quiet GW for me. Now it’s time to look for the next round.
The decisive game
Man City – Chelsea
For this round Man City vs Chelsea is definitely the game that’s going to shape our success in Weekly Monster. What should we do with Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne, Abraham, Pulisic and Mount? Man City is going to the game as clear favorites, but the question is whether Chelsea still can challenge them and keep the game tight or maybe even get a surprise win?
City assets are quite highly priced in Weekly Monster and Chelsea assets ridiculously cheap. For me it’s difficult to fit City guys in my team as there are three almost equally good but expensive options (Aguero, Sterling, KDB). Players from other teams seem to have more value in my eyes. I’m tempted to pick one from Chelsea but ignoring the game might be even better option. If Man City wins (which is likely), my Chelsea guy will get -1 point and I’m not easily picking players from teams that are likely to lose.
Thus, I’m most likely going to ignore this game, but it will still have a big effect on my success. Firstly, not all of the WM managers are going to ignore the game. If they can pick the correct players from either Man City or Chelsea, I’m losing some advantage. Secondly, this game between two big clubs means that there are lot of variations in captaincy picks for GW13. For this round just picking the right captain might be enough to beat most of the competitors. I know many managers are considering choosing Vardy but let me introduce three alternative options for whom my model gives higher point expectation for the upcoming round.
Top 3 captain picks
I know this is quite surprising as Arsenal is kind of middle in the crisis, but could the home game against Southampton after the international break be the turning point? If the answer is yes, then you shouldn’t forget Aubameyang when picking your frontline and giving the armband. Ranked no. 1 by my model with xFT 7.97.
What a differential choice for captain! With current stability in providing points and playing home against defensively weak Norwich. Still it’s a bit surprising for me that my model ranks Richarlison as no. 2 with xFT 7.54, but when looking at the stats, I’m buying the logic behind it. Hard to ignore from captaincy considerations.
Liverpool playing against Crystal Palace, so we can’t ignore their scoring potential either. Mané over Salah once again for me. It’s a tight one, but Salah having his issues with the ankle could mean I’m losing extra point, if he doesn’t play full 90 mins. My choice no. 3 Mané with xFT 7.15.
Something you didn’t know about
Did you know that stacking rule totally changed the game for Weekly Monster? Previously one of the best tactics was to have six defending players (DEF + GK) from two different clubs that were likely to have clean sheet. Chance of getting the clean sheet returns from six players could be around 20%, which was the key to win the tournaments.
Stacking penalty changed the situation for good. Even 1-point penalty of having two defending players from same time is sometimes difficult to justify, when they get the clean sheet. I often find myself building teams that have minimum number of defending players (3 DEF + GK) and those all are from different teams. Chance for me to get clean sheets points from those four players, is around 2-4%. This just means clean sheets might not be that important anymore and it might be clever to find advantage from somewhere else.