Welcome to another edition of NFL Super Sunday building blocks!
This week we are keeping our targets focused on just a handful of games that are smash-spots, as there are 4-5 contests on the board that should be low-scoring, ugly affairs featuring sub-par offenses and/or backup QBs. Let’s dive in! If you have any feedback regarding this post or the series, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@wiseguychrome) with comments and suggestions!
QBs & Stacks
High-end: Russel Wilson (20.5M)
Russel Wilson has 241.12 fantasy points through the season, and he gets to face a decent matchup against an Eagles secondary that is barely average. With no Lamar or Mahomes or the slate, Wilson is your clear #1 option and the only high-end QB that is also a rushing threat. Wilson’s WR2 in D.K. Metcalf is also incredibly cheap, so the whole package won’t set you back as much as your usual top-tier stacks!
Pair with: D.K Metcalf (12.4M)
Mid-tier: Baker Mayfield (17.8M)
Baker Mayfield is a 10-point favorite against the 32nd ranked defense in the league. His stats are getting better across the board as the season progresses, and he is actually facing his first high-upside matchup of the whole season. Mayfield is also at home where he generally excels, against a team that is 27th in passing points allowed and 32nd in touchdown rate against QBs. The price is simply too low, and I’m expecting great games from both him and OBJ!
Pair with: Odell Bekcham Jr. (16.8M)
Budget: Sam Darnold (15.8.M)
Sam Darnold is at home, facing a bottom-5 defense in Oakland, and he only costs 15.8M? Count me in! Darnold has put up back to back 20+ point games, and he should be able to shred Oakland’s 27th ranked defense here. Darnold’s number one receiver in Jamison Crowder is also extremely underpriced.
Pair with: Jamison Crowder (12.5M)
Also consider: Matt Ryan (20.2M)
Fade: Ryan Tannehill (15.7M)
Tannehill might seem appealing at first, especially off a bye week, but the Titans are expected to go run-heavy, and Tannehill isn’t cheap enough to risk a probable negative game script. Darnold is a way better choice in this price range!
High-end: Alvin Kamara (20.5M)
We’ve been mostly off Alvin Kamara this season, but he faces the worst run defense according to the almighty DVOA metrics this week. The Bengals have also allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season (that is more than one per game!). Kamara had 13 carries and ten receptions last week, and I’m expecting an even better performance against Cincinnati on Sunday.
Mid-tier: Derrick Henry (16.3M)
Henry is coming off a bye week facing a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 260 yards and three rushing TDs against an Indianapolis squad full with backups this last weekend. The Jags are allowing the third-most rushing yards and the 6th most expected points added on rush attempts. Henry should be priced among the Kamaras this week, and he isn’t. Take advantage of this!
Budget: Kareem Hunt (12.3M)
Since his return from injury, Kareem Hunt is already the third-most used weapon for Cleveland on the offensive end behind Beckham and Landry. His price isn’t reflecting this, and he is also in a great spot against a Dolphins squad that is last in the league in most defensive metrics.
Fade: Chris Carson (15.8M)
Chris Carson had a few decent weeks early this season, but he already has six fumbles through the year, and since the Seahawks started playing more pass-heavy, the upside just simply isn’t there. His price should come down 3-4M more for him to be considered as a decent low-end option. Leave him in the player pool!
High-end: Julio Jones (20.2M)
No Austin Hooper, probably no Mohamed Sanu helps Jones’s case a ton this week as the absolute #1 wide receiver. The Bucks are also a great pass funnel to attack as they focus everything on stopping the rush while allowing 286 passing yards per game. Jones hasn’t had a massive game in a while, and he is underperforming his expected fantasy points by a lot. Expect positive regression from number eleven!
Mid-tier: Odell Beckham Jr. (16.8M)
Beckham ranks 13th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points added, but is only 27th in actual fantasy points added. Another massive underachiever, who is facing a fantastic matchup! The Dolphins are allowing more than 300 passing yards per game. OBJ is #7 in targets and #4 in air yards through the past two weeks, and it is fair to expect Mayfield continuing to feed him the ball.
Budget: Devante Parker (13.1M)
Parker is coming off back to back 10-target games. The volume is just amazing and he is by far the favorite WR of Ryan Fitzpatrick. With not a lot of competition going on for the number one wide receiver spot on the team Parker is a clear guy to back this weekend. Most of the teams offense will go through him.
Also consider: D.K Metcalf (12.4M)
High-end: Zach Ertz (14.5M)
The Eagles receiving core is a mess, and this has resulted in him getting all the volume he can handle through the last couple of weeks. He is coming off back to back 11-target games and faces a great matchup on paper as Seattle gives up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Eagles are running tons of two-TE sets, so added Dallas Goedert as the second Eagles tight end isn’t the worst option either.
Mid-tier: Jacob Hollister (8.2M)
At just 8.2M Jacob Hollister is a steal. He is coming off a 19.7-point and a 20.2-point performance, and it seems like Hollister is starting to fit into the spot of Will Dissly, who was our favorite fantasy TE in the whole league before getting injured. Russel Wilson likes targeting his tight ends, and Hollister should see plenty of action against a mediocre defense in Philly this Sunday.
Budget: Cameron Brate (6.4M)
With O.J Howard getting benched last week, we have an opportunity to draft Tampa Bay’s new TE1 in Cameron Brate at a low, low price of 6.4M. Brate has seen 13 targets last week and gets to face an Atlanta defense that has excellent surface results since coming off their bye, but the underlying defensive numbers are still gruesome. If you are building an Atlanta-stack, it is a excellent idea running it back with Brate.
High-end: Pittsburgh (11.7M)
The Bengals haven’t put up more than 17 points in six weeks, and they get to face a Pittsburgh DST that has 116 fantasy points through the season (second behind New England). The Steelers are ranked as the best defense in the whole NFL by ProFootballFocus, and the Bengals are turnover-machines as well, which adds some defensive-TD upside to this selection.
Mid-tier: Tennessee Titans (10.7M)
Tennessee opened as 3-point betting favorites and have been steamed by the bettors, and I fully agree with it. The Titans have a solid top-10 defense, the DST has 26 sacks and are freshly coming off a bye week facing this 26th ranked Jacksonville offense that has looked terrible with Nick Foles in the QB position. If you want to pivot from the most popular defenses this week, then Tennessee could be a great option.
Budget: Dallas (9.3M)
New England’s offense hasn’t been the same over the last ten weeks. Tom Brady also noted that their performance on the offensive end is lacking, and the box scores are backing this up. They are mostly middling offense, and the team is only elite thanks to their great defense. Among this week’s sub-10K defenses, Dallas’s by far the best and most players will probably leave them alone as they are facing a name opponent in New England. The Patriots offense shouldn’t scare you, Dallas’s DST has slate-winning upside here at a low-low price!