Welcome to another edition of NFL Super Sunday building blocks!
It is chalk week this Sunday with Christian McCaffrey and Davante Adams being by far the best options in the RB and WR slots. The problem is that they are also the most expensive. We will be making some budget cuts at QB and TE and pay up for these two studs! If you have any feedback regarding this post or the series, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@wiseguychrome) with comments and suggestions!
QBs & Stacks
High-end: Sam Darnold (17.3M)
As I wrote in the intro, we will need the budget to pay up for our fancy skill position players, so this week’s high-end QB is a glorified mid-tier arm in a great spot. The Jets are road favorites, and Sam Darnold is coming off three weeks in a row with at least 21.7 fantasy points. The Bengals are allowing the most fantasy points in the league against opposing QBs, and they also allow the highest yards per completion. Doesn’t get any better than this!
Pair with: Jamison Crowder (14M) & Ryan Griffin (8.7M)
Mid-tier: Nick Foles (16.1M)
We are traveling to Jacksonville for our mid-tier QB pick this week. Nick Foles has been extremely disappointing since his return despite throwing 270+ yards in both games. The bad luck will turn soon, and Foles gets to face a Tampa Bay defense this week that has allowed 26 touchdowns this season to opposing QBs (in 11 weeks). Foles also has some great receivers at low prices, making him the Jacksonville package an awfully appealing one.
Pair with: D.J. Chark (15.7M) & Chris Conley (9.8M)
Budget: Andy Dalton (14.8M)
Andy Dalton will be everyone’s favorite QB this week and it isn’t hard to see why. He faces the Jets defense that is excelling against the run, but cannot defend the pass. Dalton’s receivers are decent and extraordinarily cheap as well. The Cinci QB has averaged 281 passing yards per play this season before going down with an injury. With the Jets being one of the top run defenses in the league, 76% of yards against them have come through the air. Expect a big game from Dalton & Co.!
Pair with: Tyler Boyd (13.5M) & Auden Tate (7.7M)
Also consider: Aaron Rodgers (18.9M)
Fade: Carson Wentz (18.2M)
The last time Carson Wentz had a game worth over 20 fantasy points was back in week six. Something isn’t clicking, and while the matchup is elite, he shouldn’t be the sixth-highest priced arm on the whole slate!
High-end: Christian McCaffrey (23.6M)
Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook aren’t on the slate, so CMC is our only premium RB option this weekend. His price is extremely high, but with 336.9 fantasy points through the season, you wouldn’t expect anything else. The matchup is decent, and thankfully we have some cheap pieces in other positions to make this work.
Mid-tier: Le’Veon Bell (16.5M)
If you are not paying up for CMC, you should go with Le’Veon Bell. Bell has a pretty disappointing season so far, thanks to the Jets run blocking line being the worst in all of football, but the upside is enormous here. Cincinnati has allowed the most rush attempts in the league to opposing running backs, while the Bengals also allow the seventh-most rushing yard after contact and the third-most touchdowns to the position as well. Bell has a two-touchdown ceiling this week.
Budget: Ronald Jones II (11.2M)
RoJo has 474 rushing yards and five touchdowns throughout the year, and he is also in the top 15 of the whole league when it comes to avoiding tackles. Jacksonville has the 26th ranked defense and 25th ranked run defense in the league allowing 142 rushing yards per play. They are also pretty bad at tackling. At 11.2M, you can do much worse than Jones!
Fade: Leonard Fournette (18.5M)
While Fournette could still score big because of the sheer volume of touches he gets every game, this is a bad matchup for one of our favorite fantasy RBs. Tampa Bay is second in the league at defending the run, only behind the New York Jets. Nick Foles & Co. will likely be forced to pass, and we simply cannot spend 18.5M on an RB if the game script is expected to be this unfriendly. Maybe next week!
High-end: Davante Adams (19.1M)
Adams finally got a touchdown last week, and he gets to face an easy matchup against New York this week. The Giants are the 24th best defense in the league giving up 260 passing yards per game. Adams has a 33% target share since returning from injury and Green Bay is laying almost a touchdown on the betting line, making this a very favorable position for the stud WR. The targets are there (had 11, 10, 12 through the last few weeks) and Adams will also likely face Janoris Jenkins, a CB that not a lot of receivers fear. Positive touchdown regression is still coming towards him, and Adams is my favorite play on the whole slate.
Mid-tier: Chris Godwin (16.5M)
Chris Godwin was the star of the past week, with 37.4 fantasy points. He is also projected to have better results than fellow WR Mike Evans this week. Evans costs 18.7M, so with Godwin being priced at 16.5M, we have to take the bargain! Godwin has 70 receptions this season, and Jacksonville is 31st in the league in defensive pass success rate. All board the hype train!
Budget: Tyler Boyd (13.5M)
With Andy Dalton back, Tyler Boyd quickly became a way more valuable fantasy asset than before. He did score his first touchdown since week five, and the 9.3 average targets per game are really decent. The Jets allow the 7th most fantasy points against opposing receivers. This price is way too low for a WR1 in a fantastic matchup against a bottom-five pass defense.
Also consider: Tyreek Hill (17.7M)
High-end: Darren Waller (13.5M)
With fellow Raider Hunter Renfrow out for the season, the potential ceiling for Darren Waller rose further. Waller is priced as the fifth most expensive tight end, yet I project him to be a top 3 producer in the position. He has no competition in the position, has the most significant target share among all TEs on the board, and Kansas City allows the fifth-most fantasy points against opposing tight ends. Waller is a must-own this weekend!
Mid-tier: Jack Doyle (9.4M)
I’m expecting Doyle to be the chalk this week, but it is absolutely justified. With Eric Ebron on the injury reserve, he is the only legit tight end Indianapolis has. Star WR T. Y. Hilton will also miss the game, making Doyle one of the premier targets of Jacoby Brissett. The Colts are home favorites in a decent situation against an overperforming Tennessee defense. Doyle had several 10+ point games this season; it is fair to expect another one given the circumstances. He is one of the only tight ends with a decent floor this Sunday.
Budget: Ryan Griffin (8.7M)
Ryan Griffin scored in back to back games, yet he is still only priced 8.7M? Sign me up! Grifin is a top tight end choice in a great matchup against Cincinnati, especially as he has a 33% target share when his team is inside the 10-yard line. Griffin also has the second-most fantasy points per target among all tight ends in the league. Additionally, the Bengals are a bottom-five squad when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs.
High-end I: Carolina (11.2M)
The Panthers are 10-point favorites against a Washington squad with Dwayne Haskins at the helm. Haskins has a 65.6 passer rating when clean (worst in the league) and a 20 passer rating when pressured (worst in the league). He is also worst in interception rate and adjusted sack rate. Those two stats could mean some extra points for out DST. The expected Vegas total is also under 40 here, so Washington is projected to score about 15 points maximum. I’d lean towards Carolina as my top DST choice this Sunday!
High-end II: Philadelphia (11.1M)
We are always starting the defense against Miami, and this week is no exception. The Dolphins are giving up the most fantasy points against opposing DSTs, and Fitzpatrick & Co. are once again healthy 10-point underdogs. Philly ranks fourth in pass-rush grade in the whole league while we’ve seen the Dolphins struggle to defend their QB. I won’t be surprised if the Philly DST can hang with Carolina’s in terms of point production.
Mid-tier: LA Rams (10.2M)
The Rams are the absolute best buy-low defense on the slate. After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football, LA heads to Arizona to face a way easier opponent in the Cardinals. All decent ranking systems have the Rams ranked as a top-5 defense, and I’d be honestly surprised to see them give up more than 2 TDs in this spot. Besides their -1 point performance against Baltimore, they have been okay through the whole season with 9, 19, 9, and 21 point outings through their last five games.