It’s been a while since we prepared for a weekly Monster at Fanteam the last time. Due to the midweek gameday last week and that big amount of different cups we all had a ‘WM free’ weekend. Did you miss it? Don’t worry. It’s getting on right now!
The Midweek Monster on Fanteam again brought us some exciting action.
There were 2490 entrants to compete for the 50.000€ prizepool, paying out the top 3 as follows:
User ‘daaceofdiamonds’ was the big deal this time who walked away with that sweet 4,246€ paycheck, putting ‘nevermind721’ and ‘Ins’ on places.
Only 84 points in total would have been enough for him to take that 1st spot, which shows how difficult and surprising this gameday was. Especially with the injury of Jamie Vardy there were not many clean goalscorer left.
His winning squad contained stacks of only 4 different teams: Aston Villa, Leicester, Wolves and Spurs. Captain Heung-Min Son got the most out of it with his late winner against Norwich.
Nevertheless, congratulations ‘daaceofdiamonds’.
With GW25 beginning tomorrow we’re looking at the following fixtures and the proper bookie winning odds in percent:
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa 49% / 30%
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield 33% / 39%
Liverpool vs Southhampton 79% / 10%
Newcastle vs Norwich 44% / 31%
Watford vs Everton 35% / 40%
West Ham vs Brighton 40% / 35%
Man United vs Wolves 44% / 29%
Burnley vs Arsenal 27% / 50%
Tottenham vs Man City 18% / 65%
This really looks like a tough gameday. Besides an obvious win for Liverpool and probably Manchester City, anything could happen. This means we could see a huge amount of very different lineups that can still be succesful.
So let’s take a look at some potential lineups and value players based on bookies odds.
As the winning odds already tell, the games should be very close. Besides Liverpool, there is no team with a clean sheet probability higher than 40%.
The top 3 on this occasion are:
Manchester United 38%
Sheffield United 36%
So looking at those numbers, one should probably consider a “3 at the back” formation rather than the usual 4 or 5.
Oddwise, these are the players with the highest probabilities for scoring a goal on each game:
Callum Wilson (BOU) 40%
Lys Mousset (SHU) 30%
Mo Salah (LIV) 57%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (EVE) 38%
Teemu Pukki (NOR) 42%
Neal Maupay (BHA) 36%
Anthony Martial (MUN) 37%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (ARS) 50%
Sergio Agüero (MCI) 59%
Possible Value Picks
It is nearly impossible for me to give away a decent value pick with a clear conscience.
Nevertheless, here are 3 thoughts:
1) With Sadio Mane still not being able to play and taking the odds into consideration, it could be risky to NOT include Mo Salah into your squad.
2) In my opinion the odds on Arsenal could be a little too high. The gunners are still searching for real consistency and I am not too sure about them winning easily against a fighting Burnley side. For us, this means we get possible value on cheap Burnley players all over the pitch.
3) Manchester City are struggling to score goals lately. Mourinho with his spurs knows how to defend. So is Hugo Lloris cost of only 4.3M not maybe overly cheap given the circumstances?
You decide! Have fun and good luck.