Football

CL Pursuit 11.03. – Preview

Wednesday continues with day 2 of the second leg of the second round of the Champions League.

At 9 pm we will have the two very interesting games Liverpool – Atletico and Paris – Dortmund.

But now, as always, have fun with the preview!

It quickly becomes apparent that more goals are expected at the game in Paris than at the game in Liverpool, especially from both sides. For the bookmakers Atletico only has a slightly over 50% chance of scoring at all, in the other game it is quite high with 78% and 92%.

Accordingly, Liverpool’s defense is more than twice as likely to hold the 0 at the back as Paris.

Dortmunds only 8% chance to play 0 is also very low.

Defense:

For the defense we take a look at the Fanteam Prizes of the 4 most likely defenders of all 4 teams again.

What is immediately noticeable: Liverpool is on average (which is of course significantly lowered by J. Gomez) only 0.5M more expensive than Paris, although the chance of not catching a goal is more than twice as high.

Dortmund is somewhere in no man’s land, quite low on the price, but also only with a catastrophically low chance of a clean sheet in Paris. The only exception for me at Dortmund is A. Hakimi (7.2M), because he is so strong in the offensive that he could also score well at the front. But he is also by far the most expensive defender of Dortmund and the 8% clean sheet chance hovers over him like a sword of Damocles.

Because of the Pursuit format Atletico’s defense could already be interesting. They’ll probably wall themselves in completely and, although they are clearly underdogs in Liverpool, they already have a defence and, above all, a goalkeeper to annoy Liverpool at least.

The first leg already showed that.

And with a K. Trippier (4.5M), for example, you also have a full-back, who has 4 assists on the books for Atletico this season, in 25 league and Champions League games.

Also worthy of mention is of course J. Oblak (4.5M), the goalkeeper of Atletico and consistently for years one of the best goalkeepers in the world.

In the league and in the Champions League he had 15 clean sheets this season, although Atletico has become a bit weaker on defense than 2-3 years ago.

What one should also note at this point is the comparison of Paris to Atletico on the defense.

Only a 7% higher probability of a clean sheet, but average prices of 9.2M at Paris compared to only 4.1M at Atletico Madrid

Pursuit – Format:

Now of course it is clear that Liverpool will keep a clean sheet much more often than Atletico, but we must not forget the Pursuit format where we get bonus points the more budget we have left in the end.

I simply made a comparison, once 3 Liverpool defenders + goalkeeper and 3 Atletico defenders + goalkeeper and one outside defender each as captain:

We have almost 21 bonus points with the Atletico team and not even 7 bonus points with the Liverpool team. That is 14(!) bonus points more.

 This is an insane amount in a tournament with 4-player teams and should always be kept in mind when putting together the expensive and supposedly safe variant.

Offense:

This time again there is an overview table, how likely the 4 teams each score at least 3 goals:

But without the Fanteam prizes, that doesn’t take us very far, even though it is clear that Paris is the most likely to score goals and Atletico are only believed to score 3 goals in 4 out of 100 games.

But now to the prices of all 4 teams on the offensive, where we take the striker and the 2 most expensive midfielders:

Liverpool: Firmino (12.0M) + Mane (12.8M) + Salah (12.3M) = 37.1M

Paris: Neymar (12.6M) + Di Maria (12.3M) + Sarabia (10.4M) = 35.3M

Dortmund: Haaland (8.6M) + Sancho (8.3M) + Brandt (8.2M) = 25.1M

Atletico: Morata (5.8M) + Correa (5.4M) + Koke (5.2M) = 16.4M

To evaluate the offensive is always a little bit difficult, because depending on who is in the starting eleven at Paris, the very questionable Mbappe (12.9M) and Icardi (11.8M) is still in question in the attack, at Atletico still Joao Felix (5.5M) who is listed in the attack.

But the tendency for me is that Paris is cheaper than Liverpool with a much higher chance of scoring many goals than Liverpool, no matter how you build it on the offensive.

Not only is Atletico stronger on defense than Dortmund, but the first-leg results also play a role here. 

Paris can take more risks, an away goal would not be as bad for them as it would be for Liverpool. Because they’d need a 3-1 win, while Paris would need a 2-1 in extra time.

Possible team:

Also this time I would like to bring the idea of a lineup at the end of my preview. Of course again with a reason:

I’ve been thinking for a long time whether to choose Oblak and Trippier or Lodi for the team behind, or do it like that with Adrian and Gomez.

I finally chose Liverpool. The reasons are firstly that Alisson doesn’t play and we have a cheap replacement goalkeeper in Adrian (2.2M cheaper) and Gomez is still much cheaper than the rest of the four-man team.

Add to this the comparatively small chance of Atletico scoring. The first-leg result in particular will probably not make them really offensive even at 0-1, because even that would mean extra time.

On the offensive side, Di Maria is my first choice when Mbappe drops out, because that would probably make him a lot more offensive, maybe even winger and listed on Fanteam as a midfielder.

Because of the good symbiosis I have of course added middle forward Mauro Icardi (but maybe Cavani will start too).

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