Europa League Early March 12th – Preview

Despite Corona, the last sixteen matches of the Europa League will still take place today with 3 matches at 18:55 and 3 matches at 21:00.

In the 3 games at 18:55, which are in this tournament at, Eintracht – Basel, LASK – Manchester United and Istanbul Basaksehir – Copenhagen will play.


But let’s first look at all 6 teams and how they are rated by bookies:

The 3 matches are quite balanced, there are 3 quite clear favorites with a 52-60% chance of winning, the outsiders have only 16-21%.

Also the probability of a team scoring correlates strongly with the chance of winning, again Eintracht is close ahead of Basaksehir and ManU.

Also the probability to have a clean sheet correlates here. Basaksehir is slightly the favourite for a clean sheet, just behind that are Eintracht and ManU, Basel pretty clearly behind at the very back.


Let’s look at the probability of a team scoring at least three goals:

The three outsiders are almost evenly matched, but on top it is clearly Eintracht with almost 30% chance of at least scoring 3 goals, Basaksehir and ManU follow with around 20%.

But as always we have to see this in relation to and therefore again the prices of the most expensive striker (2 for ManU) and 2 midfielders who will probably be in the starting eleven today.

Eintracht: Silva (12.5M) + Kamada (13.4M) + Kostic (12.5M) = 38.4M

Basaksehir: Ba (9.3M) + Visca (10.4M) + Kahveci (10.1M) = 29.8M

Manchester: Greenwood (9.5M) + Ighalo (8.5M) + Fernandes (9.1M) = 27.1M

LASK: Raguz (7.5M) + Michorl (7.2M) + Holland (7.0M) = 21.7M

Copenhagen: Santos (6.5M) + Stage (6.5M) + Falk Jensen (6.1M) = 19.1M

Basel: Ademi (5.4M) + Free (6.3M) + Stocker (6.1M) = 17.8M

Pretty interesting numbers, Eintracht seems to be too expensive especially because of the Pursuit format, Basaksehir and ManU orientate their prices on their probability of scoring 3 goals.

Among the outsiders Basel is the cheapest, although they just have the “best” chance to score 3 goals and the same to “score chance” as LASK, which are on average 3.9M more expensive.


Now let’s have a look at the defense of the 6 teams:

Also here you have to note that the Eintracht players are probably (clearly) too expensive. With the same to 0 chance as Manchester United the defenders cost on average 2.3M more, that is really very much, especially when we consider the Pursuit format again.

Basaksehir with the best to 0 chance also has quite good prices for the defense.

Among the underdogs, Copenhagen is probably the most interesting, but of course you have to consider that ManU has twice the chance for a clean sheet and the defenders “only” cost 2.3M more on average.

Possible team:

Finally, my idea of a team for this tournament:

As you can see I had to take 2 teams this time, because it was too tight for me.

A mix of both would also be possible of course, or you could even play a bit more risky with the Basel offensive.

Istanbul is very strong at home and with Copenhagen they have a grateful opponent who doesn’t have so much to offer in the offensive.

Istanbul is also interesting because I think that many more people are focusing on Eintracht and Manchester tonight at Fanteam.

We have a good symbiosis between Caicara, who already has six assists this season, the heart of Basaksehir Edin Visca and centre-forward Demba Ba.

The other line-up is almost self-explanatory, Fernandes is a great assist and also shoots corners, which benefits Maguire, who already has 2 goals and 2 assists this season. In the front, centre forward Ighalo, of course you could argue about which player would be the best captain, I simply chose Ighalo.

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