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Football

Preview “The Russian Monster” €10,000 Guaranteed

Fanteam is offering a big tournament featuring the Russian league this weekend.

For only €5 buy-in, there is €10,000 guaranteed in the prize pool.

Same as the Weekly Monster from England, this is not a Pursuit format tournament and has 11 players per team.

But now have fun with the preview.

Overview:

First of all I have prepared a table for you again this time:

We see here all 12 teams which are represented in this Russian Monster. 

In the middle it’s all pretty well distributed, only at the top Zenit stands out of course, CSKA is also the clear favourite, accordingly their two opponents Ufa and Ural are huge outsiders.

Except for Ural at the bottom, all teams have a probability of at least 50% to score a goal.

Accordingly only Zenit with 60% is favourite not to concede a goal, CSKA still has a Clean Sheet almost every 2nd game.

The high 39%  chance for a Clean Sheet for Arsenal Tula finally stands out a bit, too

Defense:

Let’s take a closer look at all the teams’ defenses in conjunction with the Fanteam prices. We are taking the average price of the 4 defenders who are most likely to be in the starting formation.

At the top there is hardly any surprise, but Arsenal Tula is interesting here as well. Not only are they by far the 3rd most likely team to keep a Clean Sheet in this tournament, but the average price of 7.4M seems to be very fair, too

Very interesting to see is Krasnodar versus Tambov, both with the same to 0 probability, but average prices of 7.9M versus only 6.3M.

Since we should have enough budget in this Russian Monster because of the average prices of the players, the lower teams are probably not interesting for us and therefore we go straight to the offensive:

Offense:

Here again we have a table for now:

We see here again all 12 teams and their probability to score at least 3 goals.

In addition, we can see the Fanteam average prices of the 3 most likely playing offensive players of the respective teams.

Here Krasnodar stands out, with a strong 20% chance to score at least 3 goals and they are much cheaper than CSKA, who only has a slightly higher chance for 3 goals.

Also downwards they are hardly more expensive than Rostov and Co, although the bookmakers clearly expect some goals from Krasnodar rather than from the teams below.

Players:

Finally, a few players that I think are interesting for this Russian Monster, also some players that are not so much in focus:

M. Fernandes (CSKA / 9.6M)

The very offensive right defender of CSKA is my first choice here, on the one hand CSKA has a high to 0 chance with 49%, on the other hand Fernandes is also good in the offensive for points. He has already scored 3 goals and 3 assists this season so far.

Alternatives would be in the central defense I. Diveev (8.9M) with 2 goals and 1 assist and H. Magnusson (9.3M) with 2 goals.

Another extreme statistic: CSKA’s opponent, Ufa, has scored only 4(!!) goals in 13 away games so far this season (but also only conceded 9 goals). So CSKA could be worthwhile in the defensive.

V. Karasaev (Zenith / 10.5M)

The legal defense of Zenit seems expensive at first, but in my opinion it’s worth it. Zenit is the big favourite to play to 0 with 60%. Karasaev is also very active in the offensive and has already scored 5 goals and 1 assist this season.

The alternative would be left defender Zhirkov, but unfortunately he is listed in the midfield at Fanteam.

The former Chelsea player B. Ivanovic (10.8M) would also be a good choice with already 3 goals scored this season.

Zenit has only conceded 5 goals at home in 11 games, this is of course the best result in the league.

K. Kombarov (Arsenal Tula / 7.6M)

The captain and right defender (who sometimes plays more offensively) Kombarov has already scored 3 assists this season and he would be a good choice because Arsenal Tula has a CS chance with 39% as mentioned above. 

Of course, all defenders at Tula benefit from this, but I would like to mention left defender V. Alvarez (7.5M) as an alternative. The Spaniard has already contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season.

He is followed by central defender M. Belyaev (7.3M) with 1 goal and 1 assist.

Ari (Krasnodar / 10.3M)

The center forward from Krasnodar has to show up here of course. Krasnodar plays away at Sochi.

Only one team in Russia has conceded more goals at home than Sochi, only one team has scored more goals away than Krasnodar.

Ari has 8 goals and 6 assists for Krasnodar this season, making him the leader in both categories.

A. Mostovoy (Sochi / 6.3M)

Mostovoy from Krasnodar opponent Sochi is mentioned here as a choice with high risk, but also high reward, because he is really good for this price at Fanteam.com.

Mostovoy, who is listed at Fanteam in midfield, has already scored 5 goals and 3 assists so far this season.

Important:

I would like to mention one very important thing at the end of my preview that you should know, especially if you don’t usually deal with the Russian League.

I would like to add one more graphic to show what i mean:

There is hardly any league in all of Europe (especially if we look at the big leagues here) where fewer goals are scored on average than in the Premier League of Russia.

2.33 goals per game is an extremely low number and this should be taken into account for this “Russian Monster” tournament on Fanteam.com when you create your teams.

Especially if you usually play the Weekly Monster from England for example.

It might be an advantage to focus more on the defense because so few goals are scored.

Even table leader Zenit has only scored 37 goals in 21 matches so far in this season in Russia.

 Compared to a few table leaders from other leagues you can see this really very little: Liverpool 66 goals in 29 matches, Barcelona 63 goals in 27 matches, Bayern Munich 73 goals in 25 matches and Paris 75 goals in 27 matches.

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