ESL One Road to Rio 06.05 Preview
After a successful day fantasy wise yesterday I am looking forward to today, even though it is just a small slate with just 5 games being played.
As well as yesterday there is a buyin of just 5,00€ there is a guaranteed prize pool of 10,000€, with a potential of winning 2,000€ as the first place alone.
Today 3 matches of the CIS region and 2 games of Europe will be covered.
It remains that the CIS groups are still in the beginning of their Road to Rio while the European teams play their second last game today.
The two European matches today are battles for survival as the chances to qualify for the playoffs of the loser of today’s matchups will be minimized. Qualifying for the playoffs will give the teams a whole lot more RMA points, which is what every team is here for: Points to qualify for the major in autumn.
The matchups today will be the following:
As the tournament will be played in Pursuit Fashion, which means that cheap players receive more additional points. It would be wise not to disregard cheap players as some of them might give you the edge over other players due to their bonus points.
To make sure you can take advantage of this we looked out for the best value plays for under 11 million as usual.
To determine the most value we looked at the win percentage, the 0:2 percentage for a team and the over 2,5 maps percentage. While a 0:2 loss would be really bad a close win could be beneficial. We have also taken into account that upsets and close games are more likely to win the tournament overall.
On top of it we looked at the DraftKing projected points and projected points rank to find failures in the pricings of FanTeam.
The day starts with an almost equal match which directly allows some value if you predict the right winner. Most CS:GO experts give Espada a small edge but Hard Legion beat them 2:0 just a month ago which makes this a 50/50 matchup for me as well.
The equal odds lead to the fact that every player is qualified for our selection as no one is priced above 11 million.
Next to Forester, who is my favorite pick on the Hard Legion side, it is hard to predict who tops the scoreboard together with him. Even though he had a terrible last game, Krad has the most kills per round in the last month for the team, with a good of stat of 0,73 kills per round which makes him to my second favorite pick.
On the Espada side I love the 2 carries degster and patsi for just 10,6 and 10,3 million. They lead Espada to allow them a close game in the last game and I am sure they will do it again, especially if the win against Hard Legion.
S0ft1k would have been the 3rd on my list. As he is priced the lowest by far with just 8,9 million he deserves a shout as well as he is a solid play if Espada can pull out the win.
The next match includes the surprisingly losing Team of NaVi. Even though I would have said the same 2 days ago I just don’t see them losing against pro100.
With s1mple being out of our price range and electronic having one of the worst tournaments of his life, which is at least partly because of online CS:GO, it leaves us with 3 players.
All player dont have the stats but all players do have the skillset and potential to have great performances. Every now and then everyone of them has a huge performance. To predict who it will be this time is pure gambling. I would call flamie the best pick as he is priced lowest at 9,8 million but perfecto and Boombl4 have exactly the same potential. Even though I like all 3 I would never play 2 of them in one team as it is highly unlikely that two players are putting up good numbers at the same time.
If you believe in pro100 winning at least a map, YEKINDAR is definitely a great pick as he often solo carries their team to win. If his team will stand a chance he has to have a high kill contribution and there is no way they will get an upset without him having a huge performance.
The last winner over NaVi faces off against Syman and are the clear favorites in this matchup. On the Virtus Pro site it’s easy to say that qikert and buster should be your main focuses under the 11 million edge. The two star riflers always have a lot of work to do as Adren and Sanji are putting up really bad stats.
With buster coming off a huge performance against NaVi which will have only strengthened his confidence he is one of my favorite plays of the whole slate. In the last month he has 0,74 kills per round which is an elite stat considering he has two other star players around him. On top of it he is priced a little bit lower than qikert which makes me like him more, but I wouldn’t leave qikert out as he has a lot of potential as well.
Their enemies Syman also come off a win in which Mou topped the scoreboard. Considering the AWP player is priced very cheap at 9,5 million and is facing of against his old colleague with whom he won a major with I love him as a play. Playing against Adren will put up some good memories and extra motivation I assume.
The first European matchup has Vitality and Ence facing of against each other. While the Frenchman of Vitality are currently sitting on rank 4 which would mean a qualification the Finns of Ence are on rank 6 right now. With a win Ence would go straight in front of Vitality and the roles for who qualifies and who doesn’t would be switched. All this leads to the assumption that we have a great close match in front of us.
For Ence Allu has been the main man this tournament. He is one of the top performers in the whole tournament even though they lost more games than they won. I personally think we will see a close 3 map series which would be perfect for Allu as he will get his AWP often and has time to find his groove. Next to him there is too much inconsistency to suggest a player in my opinion.
On the enemy side a lot of kills are being found by ZywOo who isn’t in our price range which doesn’t leave many kills open for the other players. Still apEX deserves a mention as he already had two insane map performances this tournament at the same time that ZywOo had a great performance.
Last but not least Fnatic has to beat Complexity in order to have a valid chance to qualify for the playoffs. The same stands for Complexity but their chances will be minimal even if they win. The Swedes are lucky to have a huge performing flusha on their side. Without him they maybe wouldn’t have the chance to qualify anmore. At just 10,5 million he averages 189,2 fantasy points even though they lost 3 games and just one. Assuming they are winning today the numbers could be even higher.
Before ESL One Road to Rio Krimz was sharing the top fragger spot with brollan. Although he hasn’t put up a performance like before until now I believe in him to do it again. If we hit the match where he leads Fnatic to win he as a captain could be a game winning pick.
On the other side the huge performances of k0nfig and the underperformance of blameF have lead to the fact that k0nfig is now their most expensive member. Still 9,4 million is a steal in my opinion, assuming Complexity can win a map.