ESL One Road to Rio 08.05 Preview
Six great games of counter strike await us today including a first semi final which makes me look forward to today.
As well as yesterday there is a buyin of just 5,00€ and there is a guaranteed prize pool of 10,000€, with a potential of winning 2,000€ as the first place alone.
Over all there are 3 CIS games, 2 EU games and 1 NA game to be covered in the fantasy contest today.
The CIS groups are slowly getting into the hot phase of their groups the two European matches are the second last game of their group stage. The NA tournament will cover the first semi final today which means: Win = you are qualified for the finals , Lose = you are out of the tournament.
Most of the matches today are obvious affairs on paper. But as you all have probably seen there where many upsets already this tournament, so every underdog will give their best to win and try to qualify for the playoffs. Qualifying for the playoffs will give the teams a whole lot more RMA points, which is what every team is here for: Points to qualify for the major in autumn.
The matchups today will be the following:
As the tournament will be played in Pursuit Fashion, which means that cheap players receive more additional points. It would be wise not to disregard cheap players as some of them might give you the edge over other players due to their bonus points.
To make sure you can take advantage of this we looked out for the best value plays for under 11 million as usual. For the first time I will also write you down my favorite picks over 11 million in the last sentence, as these players have been the best captain plays for the last days.
To determine the most value we looked at the win percentage, the 0:2 percentage for a team and the over 2,5 maps percentage. While a 0:2 loss would be really bad a close win could be beneficial. We have also taken into account that upsets and close games are more likely to win the tournament overall.
On top of it we looked at the DraftKing projected points and projected points rank to find failures in the pricings of FanTeam.
As usual the first 3 matchups will be 6 CIS teams fighting off against each other.
Virtus Pro vs Hard Legion
The odds suggest a win for Virtus Pro in the first match and the game stats do nothing else as Hard Legion has not been able to win a map against Virtus Pro ever.
The two star riflers buster and qikert are my favorite plays in this slate. The firepower of them is too strong for Hard Legion to compete with which make the game easy for themselves.
A note to take is that it was always qikert at the top of the scoreboard at the end of the match between both teams.
I won’t pick a player of Hard Legion today as I don’t the them winning a map and even if, I don’t see them making the other 2 maps competitive then.
pro100 vs Espada
The second matchup of the day is one of the closest ones. The odds split their winning chances 50/50. I would simply give Espada the edge as they won their last 2 matchups against pro100 just 1 month and 2 months ago. I also see pro100 being in great form so I definitely agree with the odds. If I would be forced to guess a winner I would go with Espada.
Nonetheless we are here for the players and not for the winner and if we see a 3 map series players from both oppositions can be powerful for your team. I rewatched the stats of their last 3 matchups which all happened this year and it was really interesting to note that it was Degster but also Dima at the top of the scoreboard everytime. Especially Degster who is the top performer for them this tournament as well sounds like a great pick. But also Dima could prove his worth as he wont have high ownage at all.
On the pro100 side there is just 1 name to be picked but it could be even more powerful.
YEKINDAR is an insane talent and there are already memes going around about how he carries his old teammates, I think no more explanation is needed about why you should pick him.
Natus Vincere vs Syman
The third game in the CIS region should also find their winner on the left side of the matchup and it shouldn’t be close in any way. While Navi belongs to the Elite teams of the world Syman is a lower tier CIS team and even there they are struggling a lot as they have just won 1 game until now. I think it’s quite obvious you should fade Syman players as the chances of getting to a 3rd map are really low.
For the Navi side we have the same situation as last time. The massive underperformance of Electronic leaves room for other players. Last time it was definitely flamie who used it to his individual advantage and I can see him doing it again. Boombl4 also deserves a shout. Even though he hasn’t been going insane until now he would be my second choice for filling up the space electronic leaves right now, so definitely keep an eye out of him.
Godsent vs Mousesports
The first EU game looks boring on the first look and also the odds suggest an obvious affair but if we look at the table there is actually a lot of fire in the matchup. Godsent is currently placed in front of Mousesports while Mousesports wouldn’t qualify right now. If Godsent can win here it would maximize their chances to qualify and Mousesports would basically be out of the tournament. If Mousesports can win both teams would have 3 wins 2 loses and their path would be decided on the last matchday.
Even though I see Mousesports winning this one there is more value to be found on the Godsent side. Both zehN and Maden at 9,7 million is a steel and if they manage to win either of both could be an insane play. Especially zehN has been on fire the last games.
Their opponents are priced really high due to their favorite role which makes it hard to find value. But woxic at 10,5 million still has a lot of potential and can take a game over by himself. The AWPer is their second best performer fantasy points wise and was especially good when winning, which are good conditions for today.
Copenhagen Flames vs FaZe
Usually FaZe would be the clear favorite hear and I would fade the Copenhagen Flames a 100%. But FaZe are in a situation where they qualified for the playoffs for sure and have secured the 1st spot for sure as well if I am not mistaken. This leaves them with nothing to play for while Copenhagen Flames on the other side don’t have bad stats with 3 wins and 2 loses, but definitely cant lose their last 2 games if they want to qualify. It is still hard for me to see them winning a map or calling them the favorites but I should leave that aside as many similar situations have ended in the favor of the underdog in CS:GO already.
Farlig and refrezh have been their two carry man until now and it will need a huge performance of both of them in order to beat the firepower of FaZe. While Farlig had two performances over 200 points and could be a really low owned captain play, refrezh was the more consistent one and so even tops the average points of Farlig so far. Who you pick in your 1 or 2 underdog teams in your decision, maybe picking both of them and adding a star of another team can be valid in the case of an upset.
Nonetheless we shouldn’t forget that FaZe are the favorites in this matchup for a reason. With coldzera now being priced over 11 million broky is the only one I really consider from FaZe. The only way for the young AWPer is up. Just some tournaments ago he was bottom fragging for his team and now he already averages the second highest fantasy points and kills this tournament. He is getting praise from his teammates all around which makes me like him even more.
GenG vs Cloud9
The first semi final is here and the matchup isn’t what many expected before the tournament.
Cloud9 started horribly and while GenG started great they seem to cease at least a bit. Odds wise the game is totally balanced. Skillwise most of CS:GO players would rate GenG higher, but I think Cloud9 is massively underrated. Sure, their first game of the tournament of them was horrible to watch, but everyone can get a bad start to a tournament. The fact that they recovered from it shows me they definitely got it in them.
A fact to consider is their matchup in the group stage. Cloud9 won that game 2:1. Impressively the map Cloud9 lost was really close while the 2 maps they won were not at all. There is no doubt GenG can turn that around today, but I see the ownage of Cloud9 players being lower than what their chances of winning are.
While floppy and oSee are the first coming into my head thinking of Cloud9, I looked at their last matchups against GenG where oSee didn’t had his best performances. Sonic and especially motm had good performances against them. I think the stats of specific matchups is really underrated until now which makes me want to use it to my advantage as much as possible which is why I will use floppy and motm the most here.
Looking at the teams last head to heads I figured out koosta was the reason of the bad performances of oSee. He clearly won the AWP battle even though they lost. Next to him bntet has to have a good performance if they want to beat Cloud9 this time.
My favorite over 11 millon picks for today: s1mple, coldzera, Jame