ESL One Road to Rio 09.05 Preview
With 9 CS:GO matches today we are back to the schedule where you can’t catch a break of beautiful CS:GO.
As well as the past days there is a buyin of just 5,00€ and there is a guaranteed prize pool of 10,000€, with a potential of winning 2,000€ as the first place alone.
Over all there are 3 CIS games, 4 EU games and 2 NA games to be covered in the fantasy contest today.
The CIS groups are slowly getting into the hot phase of their groups while the 4 European matches are playing the last game of their group stage. The NA tournament will cover the second semi final today. Next to it there is the decider for the 5th/6th place, which has at least more motivation as usual behind it as the 5th place will give the team more RMA points.
Most of the matches today are obvious affairs on paper. But as you all have probably seen there where many upsets already this tournament, so every underdog will give their best to win and try to qualify for the playoffs. Qualifying for the playoffs will give the teams a whole lot more RMA points, which is what every team is here for: Points to qualify for the major in autumn.
The matchups today will be the following:
As the tournament will be played in Pursuit Fashion, which means that cheap players receive more additional points. It would be wise not to disregard cheap players as some of them might give you the edge over other players due to their bonus points.
To make sure you can take advantage of this we looked out for the best value plays for under 11 million as usual. For the first time I will also write you down my favorite picks over 11 million in the last sentence, as these players have been the best captain plays for the last days.
To determine the most value we looked at the win percentage, the 0:2 percentage for a team and the over 2,5 maps percentage. While a 0:2 loss would be really bad a close win could be beneficial. We have also taken into account that upsets and close games are more likely to win the tournament overall.
On top of it we looked at the DraftKing projected points and projected points rank to find failures in the pricings of FanTeam.
As I don´t have much time today the analysis will be much shorter than usual. If you have any questions regarding today’s slate don’t hesitate to contact me.
forZe vs Gambit Youngsters
Although forZe is the better team on paper you should note that both team faced of against each other just 5 days ago in another tournament. Gambit Youngsters won the match clearly 2:0. I think they are able to do it again which is why I will go for their players
Best value pick: sh1ro
Unique vs Nemiga
There is no more to say then that Unique will lose this match 2:0 as any other game so far. Their players dont have any value at all. On the Nemiga side there is also no player under 11 million which is worth to pick in my opinion
Best value pick: none
Winstrike vs Spirit
An interesting match where no result would surprise me. The fact that Spirit is the favorite on paper and on top of that there is no clear carry player on Winstrike right now makes me dislike their players.
On Spirits side chopper is already more expensive but he is still their best performing player so far and just priced 3rd highest at 10,3 million.
Best value pick: chopper
Dignitas vs Complexity
In my opinion Dignitas is overrated due to their win against fnatic. On the other side Complexity has had some loses where they also could have won. I think Complexity will win but it could very well be on 3 close maps which makes both teams interesting.
Best value picks: f0rest, k0nfig
Vitality vs Heretics
In my opinion the honeymoon period of Heretics is over but the fact that Vitality also has some struggles going on I wouldn’t count them out winning a map. In this case I really like maka as everyone talks about him being the potential replacement for misutaaa. This would be a huge step for his career so he will definitely try to prove himself.
Best value pick: maka
Ence vs Astralis
The Finns are in a weird place right now, but Astralis wont help them to boost their confidence. I predict a clear 0:2 for Astralis and even if Ence manages to win a map I think they will get destroyed on the other 2 maps so I really hate their players today. On the Astralis site xyp9x is still their second best performing player and is priced at a soft 10,1 million.
Best value pick: xyp9x
Fnatic vs NIP
Odds wise Fnatic is the clear favorite which I don’t really agree with. For me this is a 50/50 match which will most likely go to 3 maps. As I expect a close match I really like players of this matchup today. JW and flusha have an insane tournament until now and plopski seems to be the slight best performing player in the very balanced NIP lineup.
Best value picks: JW, flusha, plopski
Furia vs Liquid
The second semi final of the NA bracket could have very well been the final as well. Furia is an phenomenal form and Liquid also looks as they are coming back in shape for the playoffs after they struggled in the group stage. Even though all Liquid members have reported they are feeling great as a team again I think Furia is still underrated and they are the favorites today. Nonetheless everything could happen here. As I expect a close match and the pricing for this match is not too sharp I really like the matchups players.
Best value picks: kscerato, hen1, naf
Envy vs 100 Thieves
In a decider for a lower place you shouldn’t count out anyone ever. Literally everything could happen here. 100 Thieves are still the better team so I expect them to win but as I said you never know. I picked a player from both teams as their top scorers both aren’t too expensive so if the match will be close they could be great picks.
Best value picks: michu, gratisfaction
My favorite over 11 millon picks for today are : Brollan, ZywOo, lollipop21k