ESL One Road to Rio 10.05 Preview
The first grand final and 8 other beautiful games of CS:GO lay right in front of us and I couldn’t be more excited as a lot of my predictions proved right yesterday, even though the winner was known after the Dignitas – Complexity matchup and I myself did not own a full Complexity stack team.
As well as the last couple of days there is a buyin of just 5,00€ there is a guaranteed prize pool of 10,000€, with a potential of winning 2,000€ as the first place alone.
Over all there are 3 CIS games and 4 EU games to be covered in the fantasy contest today.
The CIS group is in an interesting situation as every team of the group has 2 wins and 2 loses on their back. Every game counts in order to qualify for the playoffs which hopefully leads to high quality CS:GO.
The 4 European matches are playing the last game of their group stage and beside FaZe and G2 who are already qualified for the playoffs and c0ntact and Movistar riders who are already confirmed out of the tournament there are still 4 teams fighting for the 3rd and 4th place. The better the place the more RMA points the teams get which the teams need in order to qualify for the major in autumn.
The matchups today will be the following:
As the tournament will be played in Pursuit Fashion, which means that cheap players receive more additional points. It would be wise not to disregard cheap players as some of them might give you the edge over other players due to their bonus points.
To make sure you can take advantage of this we looked out for the best value plays for under 11 million as usual.
To determine the most value we looked at the win percentage, the 0:2 percentage for a team and the over 2,5 maps percentage. While a 0:2 loss would be really bad a close win could be beneficial. We have also taken into account that upsets and close games are more likely to win the tournament overall.
On top of it we looked at the DraftKing projected points and projected points rank to find failures in the pricings of FanTeam.
Hard Legion vs NaVi
Surprisingly NaVi isn’t qualified for the playoffs up until this point. Even worse, they aren’t on the first places but splitting the places with every other team as they have 2 wins and 2 loses to their record. It means they have to win everything now in order to fulfill their favorite roll which should definitely be their goal.
A shining light for them is, that electronic came alive in their last match. As stupid as it sounds because s1mple is doing almost everything for them, electronic is actually an almost even win condition for them. If he has a bad tournament NaVi goes out early, if he has a good tournament they are likely to be in the final at least. For this reason I really like electronic as a pick today, as he is priced at only 10,7 million due to his underperformance the last days.
Moreover flamie also is a great value pick. Being the second best performer for NaVi this tournament but being priced at just 9,8 million he is definitely worth a shout.
pro100 vs Syman
The next match is hard to read for myself. I don’t know the teams to well to predict a favorite other than the odds do. With my little knowledge I agree with the odds that Syman should win this in a close one on paper. Although I am not sure about the outcome I really like some of their players as great value picks. On the pro100 side yekindar is their win condition and their only way to get a match going. He has to perform for pro100 to have a chance and even if they lose I think he will have a great performance.
On the Syman side everyone could be the top fragger in the end of the game as they dont have a clear carry as their enemies. Value wise I really like keoz though. His price tag is at only 9,8 million while he is one of the better fraggers of their team.
Espada vs Virtus Pro
On paper Virtus Pro should have 1 win more to their record after the game, but Virtus Pro is known for the upsets against them. Their inconsistency is a problem which holds them off of being a real top team. If Virtus pro manages to win as they should buster will be a great play. The star player has had huge performances this tournament so far. Following he is priced lower than star players of other teams at 10,8 million he has great value for sure. Nonetheless I will also go for some teams with Espada players as I don’t trust Virtus Pro at all. My main man to target will be degster, as he has the most consistency in his game but the highest ceiling as well.
Copenhagen Flames vs Mousesports
Although Mousesports doesn’t have the qualification in their own hands anymore it is still possible for them if other matchups work out in their way and these outcomes are not unlikely at all. But first of all they have to win themselves which isn’t too sure with the current state they are in. I still think they should win but Copenhagen Flames has also shown some great CS this tournament. On the Mousesports side the only candidate under 11 million is woxic but he sure has some value, especially as he has a really high ceiling.
As I said with the underperformance of Mousesports I won’t count Copenhagen Flames out. I really like the star rifler refrezh as he is putting up huge numbers for his team and isn’t even the most expensive player.
FaZe vs c0ntact
With FaZe having 6 wins and 0 loses to their record and c0ntact having 0 wins and 6 loses to their name the matchup couldn’t be easier to predict. There is a huge skill gap and with FaZe being in great form I see an easy 2:0 victory for them even though they got nothing to play for as the 1st place is already secured for them.
In a matchup like this there are perfect circumstances given to find confidence again. Olofmeister, insanely skilled player, but lacking confidence for a while is the perfect player to utilize this. He is a very aggressive player which supports this theory. He is priced lowest at FaZe at only 9,6 million which makes me thinks this is one of the greatest risks to take today.
Next to him broky continues to surprise the viewers and I am sure he will do it again today.
Godsent vs Movistar Riders
This matchup could potentially have impact about who qualifies and who doesn’t but most likely won’t have. The Movistar Riders are confirmed out so they have nothing to play for. Godsent could still be knocked out but this is not very likely to happen. Nonetheless they will try to win in order to confirm it themselves. As Movistar Riders have nothing to play for I see a lack of motivation and quite an easy match for Godsent. Maden and Styko are both candidates for my teams as they have solid numbers this tournament and both have to potential to win a map on their own. On top of it it’s unlikely that zehN puts up a performance like last game so their will be room for other players.
G2 vs North
If North manages to win here this would extinguish the hope of some other teams who are fighting for a playoff spot today but I don’t see that happening to be honest. North have been struggling a lot the last 2 weeks. Even a full strength North would have a hard task against G2 so I don’t really see a chance here. G2 themselves are trying to keep the second place of the group as they will continue their Road to Rio on the upper bracket if they can do it. In order to do that they just have to win today which is doable as I said.
Especially Nexa but also Jackz and Amanek all have the potential to earn many points. G2 always delivers many multi kills and clutches which offers more extra points. The last time both teams met nexa had a huge game so I definitely would keep an eye on him.
My favorite picks for over 11 million today are : s1mple, frozen, Jame