After a 1 day break of the Road to Rio we have a new week with a lot of CS:GO games ahead, although there are less than last week.
Other than last week there is a buyin of just 10,00€ and there is a guaranteed prize pool of 15,000€, with a potential of winning 3,500€ as the first place alone.
For the first time in this tournament it is only the EU region which delivers some matchups today. On the one side there are two lower bracket quarter finals which will be be pure competition and on the other side there are the 11th and 9th place deciders which could be a bit of a let down. Winning the decider matches will give the moins as least some more RMA points which they need in order to qualify for the major in autumn.
Decider matches in CS:GO are similar to decider matches of other sports, there is no guarantee of their teams giving their best which leads to the fact that every outcome is possible.
The matchups today will be the following:
As the tournament will be played in Pursuit Fashion, which means that cheap players receive more additional points. It would be wise not to disregard cheap players as some of them might give you the edge over other players due to their bonus points.
To make sure you can take advantage of this we looked out for the best value plays for under 11 million as usual. For the first time I will also write you down my favorite picks over 11 million in the last sentence, as these players have been the best captain plays for the last days.
To determine the most value we looked at the win percentage, the 0:2 percentage for a team and the over 2,5 maps percentage. While a 0:2 loss would be really bad a close win could be beneficial. We have also taken into account that upsets and close games are more likely to win the tournament overall.
On top of it we looked at the DraftKing projected points and projected points rank to find failures in the pricings of FanTeam.
Fnatic vs Movistar Riders
To begin with there is the 11th place decider. As dumb as this matchups sounds there is still a 100 RMA points difference between the winner and the loser which is the same amount that splits the 1 and the second apar so its not meaningless at all.
I think it is important to consider that these 100 points will probably be way more important for the Movistar Riders than for Fnatic. On top of it, fnatic is known for a team that isn’t playing pretty CS when lacking motivation. Basically it all comes down how motivated Fnatic will be. If they are motivated they should beat the Movistar Riders in a clear 2:0 fashion, who just managed to win 1 game out of 5 after a brilliant start. On the other hand if Fnatics isn’t playing on 100% there is a very good chance for the Movistar Riders who will characteristic always give 100%. On top of it they don’t have the chance to play on this big stage often and as I said before they really need the 100 more RMA points in order to even stand a chance. All in all everything can happen here, but under normal conditions this would be a 2:0 for Fnatic.
Coming to player picks Fnatic still offers up 2 great value picks. flusha at 10,6 million and JW at 10,0 million both surprisingly had an insane tournament. Their average fantasy points are 205,8 and 198,2 which makes them the second and third best players in this category of the whole slate, even though other teams have won more games. JW has profited quite a bit of the straight map bonus as he always performed better on the second map in their wins which has to be realised, but no one says this can’t happen again.
On the Movistar Riders side it has been switching a lot who performs individual and who doesn’t. In the end ALEX has rightfully looked like their best player. He is the guy who drops 30+ frags the most and is the most consistent as well. At 9,8 million he is surely a risk but if Movistar Riders can pull the upset he will be a must own.
Vitality vs Godsent
Vitality had a really inconsistent tournament so far. Either they ran over they enemies or the other way around. Godsent has definitely shown some good signs but the loss against Movistar Riders in their last game has shown that they aren’t an elite team yet, at least not an consistent one. Considering there is a progress in the tournament on the line I see Vitality winning this match. Both teams matched up against each other 2 months ago where Vitality won 2:0, although 1 map was very close. I don’t rule out a 3 map series and if that happens Godsent could provide a really high point scorer as one of their two stars always goes of in such scenarios. But looking at the detailed stats it is actually styko who performs the most average kills per round, has has just suffered as he often performed better on the first map.
Although it’s a risky play to pick him you can spend half a million less but get the statistically better player which makes this a valid option in my opinion. Nonetheless the 2 star players probably have a higher ceiling but it feels like 50/50 to guess who performs and who doesn’t so I don’t want to call out a guess, but feel free to choose yourself.
Picking up a player of Vitality under 11 million there is always a big risk involved as ZywOo can always win a map own his own so there are no fantasy points for the other players left. Looking at the stats of Vitality it is an horrible view. Every member beside ZywOo averages around 0,6 kills per round which isn’t much at all. Following this the deciding stats for me are the price and the ceiling or in other words, who has the potential to drop 30+ kills.
Apex definitely has to be mentioned as he managed to drop around 30 frags already twice this tournament. On top of it he is priced at 9,8 million which allow some juicy bonus points.
Nonetheless I don’t really like the cheaper plays of Vitality today.
North vs Heretics
The second lower bracket quarter final is a weird one. North is playing with a coach for 2 games now, but suddenly performs better than before you could argue. I think analysis wise it’s useless to pick up any stat as this is a totally different scenario. As a logical thinking CS:GO fan you have to give Heretics the favorite role here even though the performance of Heretics has dropped of massively compared to the beginning.
With the loses coming in for Heretics it was actually the in game leader who top fraged often but as I expect them to win if I pick their players Nivera definitely is my favorite play under 11 million. I like him a lot and I can see him being a really solid member for my teams today.
On the North side the pick are pretty obvious. You just have to look at the players form compared to their price and you realize aizy and MSL are the must picks here. Considering Jumpy will almost guaranteed just have a few kills the other players will have to step up even more. Hoping North can bring it to a 3rd map I really love their player potential here.
Ence vs Copenhagen Flames
To end the day there will be the 9th place decider. You can basically copy my thought process from the other decider match above. Anything can happen here.
On the Ence side the youngster Sergej actually found some of his “old” form. He averages close to 0,7 average kills per round which isn’t close to his last elite tournaments performances. On top of it hes is out performing his other teammates under 11 million but most importantly he has the highest ceiling as he can easily drop 30 frags if he is feeling it. Almost the same can be said about suNny. He just hasn’t been able to do it this tournament so far. Being priced 0,3 million lower as Sergej he is still a potential risk you can take.
Talking about ceiling, Farlig definitely has something to say about that. He is the highest rated player of the whole tournament despite placing 9th/10th overall. This man is the reason Copenhagen Flames didn’t finish last. He even exceeds ZywOo in average kills per round with 0,83. Considering Copenhagen Flames have a solid chance in this matchup he is my favorite captain play today and you will see me owning him a lot. His price tag at 10,5 million isn’t cheap with not being the favorite, but totally understandable. He still has an absurd amount of value as I see him being on of the top 5 fantasy points scorers today.
My favorite over 11 million picks for today: allu, brollan, ZywOo