We are arriving in the late stages of the tournament which means there are 3 decisive playoff games today.
As well as yesterday there is a buyin of just 10,00€ and there is a guaranteed prize pool of 10,000€, with a potential of winning 1,500€ as the first place alone.
Next to the semifinal in the CIS region, there are the upper bracket and the lower bracket final in the EU region to be played. While the loser of the lower bracket final will be eliminated, the winner of the upper bracket final will go straight to the final as well as the winner of the CIS semifinal. Getting to the final will give the teams more prize money but most importantly more RMA points, which they need in order to qualify for the major in Rio in autumn.
The matchups today will be the following:
As the tournament will be played in Pursuit Fashion, which means that cheap players receive more additional points. It would be wise not to disregard cheap players as some of them might give you the edge over other players due to their bonus points.
To make sure you can take advantage of this we looked out for the best value plays for under 11 million as usual. For the first time I will also write you down my favorite picks over 11 million in the last sentence, as these players have been the best captain plays for the last days.
To determine the most value we looked at the win percentage, the 0:2 percentage for a team and the over 2,5 maps percentage. While a 0:2 loss would be really bad a close win could be beneficial. We have also taken into account that upsets and close games are more likely to win the tournament overall.
On top of it we looked at the DraftKing projected points and projected points rank to find failures in the pricings of FanTeam.
Spirit vs Virtus Pro
The CIS Semi Final should be great game. Both teams are exciting on their own. I actually think the odds are laying too heavy in the direction of Spirit which allows value on the Virtus Pro side.
For me this is a 50/50 game with a slight advantage for Spirit based on the fact that both teams matched up against each other a month ago and Spirit won 2:1.
Though if I am looking at the prices I definitely like the Virtus Pro players more today. Every Virtus Pro player has had his moments this tournament already. It is Buster who stepped up the most and also dropped the highest kill number overall. Next to him it has been quite in terms of fragging and carry performances. I still like Jame a lot, as many DFS player probably don’t know what he is capable of as they haven’t seen him doing anything yet. This will lead to a low owner percentage and an exploitable value play.
Although I think the the prices of Spirit are too high in general, there is a clear mistake in the pricing as iDIDBALANCE is the most expensive member which doesn’t make any sense at all. mir is priced at 10,6 million instead which is a player that has to be used a lot. Don’t forget that almost everyone will realize that so I am quite sure he will have by far the highest ownership percentage today. Fading him could be a tournament winning play if he isn’t doing good in the end. Chopper also has been a solid player for your team almost every game so far, so I surely have to name him at least. Although his prize has already risen a lot I still think he has value with the firepower he has got in him.
Vitality vs G2
G2 is part of a French derby for the second day in a row and I see them being the favorite for the second day in a row as well. The odds are pretty much even and don’t get me wrong, I agree that everything could happen here.
I think especially after the removal of Vitality’s ex – in game leader ALEX G2 is the better team on paper. Sure, they haven’t shown the prettiest CS:GO this tournament so far, but they have stepped up when it mattered so they are still in the tournament. I think the potential of G2s roster is just so much higher that you have to favor them here.
I am struggling to find good value plays in this match as in both teams everyone can step up, but no one does consistently, at least in this tournament.
Due to this I am especially looking at the games which were played yesterday as the most recent games should be the most reliable source.
On the Vitality side shox has been the reason Vitality managed to win in a 3 overtime thriller. He had the most kills in the whole server after the match, which surely is a good performance with 10 players of the caliber of ZywOos and plopskis. He probably would have been my favorite pick even without yesterday as he seems to find his form again, at least slowly. On top of hit he definitely has the highest ceiling after ZywOo. At just 10,1 million he is surely worth a shout.
On the G2 side I like huNter the most. This man surely is in the run of being a top 5 player this year, even though he hasnt been showing it this tournament so much. His price has now arrived at 10,7 million which is too low in my opinion. His ceiling is one of the highest ever and he has only teased that yesterday, with 30 kills on the final map against Heretics. Even though he has struggled so far he still has the most average fantasy points so far which makes me like him even more. All in all he is my favorite captain play today.
Astralis vs FaZe
FaZe has always struggled to win against the Danes, which is why the odds favor Astralis so much. But I don’t expect such a clear affair. Astralis definitely isn’t on their maximum level while FaZe individually looks as strong as rarely before. If there was a time for FaZe to win it would be now. The prices are obviously matching the odds, but as both of these don’t match my expectations I see a lot of value in their players. Technically it could be anyone but Olofmeister who steps up the most today, and even he has a shot at it.
Though I have realized that there is often a combination of two winning the game for FaZe. Surely there are exceptions but all in all this is an interesting take in my opinion. If coldzera is carrying the team, it is broky who also steps up. If NiKo is at the top of the scoreboard rain puts up his best numbers.
If you play FaZe players those are the combinations I would use and it might be a good advantage if FaZe delivers a good game. Looking at the pricings of both these combinations, the price gaps are fair and I think it is 50/50 on who gets more fantasy points today.
If you are an Astralis believer, which is definitely understandable looking at the results of all of their games against each other, I would favor magisk as he has been coming alive in the last games and has the second highest probability after device to top the scoreboard at the end of a game again.