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Football

Nevermind’s German Monster Preview

All eyes on German Football action! The German top-flier will be the first major sports (not only football!) league back from its Covid-19 break. Fanteam rewards us with a sensational 50,000€ price pool. With this being a new league and no significant advantages of experts yet, this is your chance to grab 10,000€. Football’s back, yeah!

OUTBREAK of the week (Premium Picks)

In order to have a shot at 10.000€ for the winner, your captain choice needs to be on point. Basically, he needs to break out like Covid19 (sorry, too early?). There is no need to introduce the Lewandowskis and Haalands of this world, that’s why I will stick with two other recommendations:

In Lewandowskis shadow, Timo Werner (Leipzig, 14.0m) has had an incredible season. If you extrapolate his 21 goals in 25 games, it would amount to 29 goals over the full season. Only Lewandowski (2016) and Aubameyang (2017) scored more than that over the last 40 years (!). With many people focusing on the big names Bayern and Dortmund, Werner could be a nice differential captain in a relatively easy matchup.

If you want to ride with Bayern though, you have to consider Kingsley Coman (Munich, 11.8m). Contrary to his counterpart on the other side, Gnabry, he is listed as a midfielder on Fanteam. This guarantees sweet extra points for goals and clean sheets, with both seemingly realistic. Coman is back from an injury – now his main competitor Coutinho will have to sit out injured, assumingly cementing Coman’s spot in the starting eleven. Don’t be fooled by his mere 2 goals and 2 assists this season. In expected goals and assists, he sits at 0.60 combined goals and assists per 90 minutes. Also, in terms of big chances created per 90, he’s a top 10 player in the league.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH of the week

Whilst we want to stop exponential growth in terms of Covid-19, we want to reach exponential growth with our bankroll (and surely not flatten THIS curve). To achieve this, choosing the right value picks is crucial.

Mainz’s Robin Quaison (Mainz, 7.6m) is as hit-and-miss as it gets. In the last 10 games, he scored a hattrick not once, but twice (!). Both hattricks were achieved away and fittingly enough, Mainz is due to play in Cologne for a rather open and balanced matchup. This high scoring potential obviously is very much endorsed by us DFS-players. If you don’t select him in a few of your lineups, you might be left out in the rain if it’s on of those days for him.

Another player due for a balanced matchup is Augsburg’s Philipp Max (Augsburg, 7.9m). He takes all set pieces for Augsburg. This includes corners, direct freekicks and indirect freekicks, which obviously boosts his scoring potential. With a stunning 7 goals and 5 assists thus far this campaign, he already proved he can make best use out of it. 28 of his dead ball situations led to scoring chances, which is among the best in the league. Max might even be on pens after scoring Augsburg’s last one against Hoffenheim. Monitor Augsburg’s lineup closely, if he plays as left back, his upside obviously takes a hit.

CONTAGIOUS STACK of the week

In Fanteam, we obviously try to make our picks contagious to each other (i.e., stacking). This week, picking a stack from Dusseldorf’s defense might make sense. With clean sheet odds of 3 and an implied probability of over 30%, two players for around 15m € could reward you mightily and at the same time leave some cash to boost your offense. Paderborn is dead-last in the standings, not least due to their bad offense away from home (only 13 goals scored in 12 away matches). To combine the solid clean sheet odds with some scoring potential, consider Kaan Ayhan (Dusseldorf, 7.7m) as part of your stack, as he already has five attacking returns (3 goals, 2 assists) for the season.

SOCIAL DISTANCING of the week

Please keep 1.50 meters away from other people. Please keep even further away from Borussia Dortmund’s defense this Saturday. Wild games have been the norm in the derby between Dortmund and Schalke (Gelsenkirchen) over the last 3 years, with scores like 4:4 or 4:2 for Schalke. Borussia has kept only one clean sheet against Schalke in this time frame. On top, Dortmund will miss not one, but both central midfielders (Can, Witsel). Now combine this with the lack of opportunity to train for such a situation. Nobody knows how much „Derby“ will remain without spectators, but I’d not bet on Dortmund to keep it clean.

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