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This article breaks down some of the key players to look out for in the upcoming Premier League round based on underlying stats and odds provided by the Drafthound.com team.
Ruben Dias is currently the most nailed starter in the league’s most consistent defense. The Portuguese has played every minute of every game so far this season and returned a record 12 clean sheets. Both Stones and Cancelo have shown more attacking prowess than him but his consistency is what separates him from them. Man City faces Burnley (A) in Gameweek 22 who have failed to score in over half of their games this season (11). In addition to this, they also have the second-worst goal record (13) behind only Sheffield United (12). Man City are huge win favorites (82%) and have a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet.
Grealish has 1 goal and 3 assists in his last five games and he’s returned attacking points in four of those. No other player has created as many chances as him (67) and he’s currently joint-first on the assist chart (11) along with Kane. As a team, Aston Villa has scored the joint-fourth most goals (34) despite playing fewer games than the rest – their home record is even better with only Liverpool (21), Chelsea (21), and Man City (22) scoring more than them (17). Aston Villa faces West Ham (H) in Gameweek 22 and are favorites to win (44%) and have a 25% chance of scoring more than 2.5 goals. The bookmakers’ have priced Grealish’s chances of scoring to 26% which ranks him as that fixture’s most likely goalscoring candidate behind only the forwards.
Fernandes has failed to return a goal or an assist in four out of his last five games – but he’s never gone longer than two games without an attacking return. Despite his recent dip in form, he’s still scored the joint-third most goals (11), and returned the joint-third most assists (9) this season. He is also second for shots attempted (68), third for shots on target (28), and second for chances created (60). He faces Southampton (H) in Gameweek 22 against whom he scored a goal and provided an assist in the reverse fixture and as a result, the bookmakers’ have priced his chances of scoring again to 45% which only Salah can best this round (56%). Man United have scored the joint-second most goals in the league (37) and have had the second-most shots on target (117). This week the bookmakers’ have priced them as major favorites (65%) and given them a 38% chance of scoring over 2.5 goals.
Salah is back in the goals after finding the net twice against West Ham on Sunday for the first time since GW14. He plays Brighton (H) in Gameweek 22 against whom he has an incredible record with 5 goals and 4 assists in seven games. Also, he has the highest odds to score this Gameweek with 56%. Liverpool has scored 6 goals in their last two games and currently top the charts for league goals (43), shots attempted (334), and shots on target (334). Liverpool is also major favorite to win (74%) and the chances of scoring more than 2.5 goals are 43% which only Man City can best this round (52%).
Barnes has 4 goals (and 2 assists) in his last seven games with only Lacazette (5) and Gündogan (6) scoring more. In the same period, he’s also joint-fourth for both shots attempted (19) and shots on target (8). Leicester has the joint-second best goal record this season (37) and the third-best away record (21) which should give them confidence ahead of their game against Fulham (A) in Gameweek 22 who have only managed 4 clean sheets this campaign. As a result, the bookmakers’ have priced Leicester as favorites to win (52%) and priced their chances of scoring more than 2.5 goals to 25%. Barnes has been given a 29% chance of scoring which matches that of Maddison who also deserves an honorable mention as a Leicester candidate along with Tielemans who is on penalty duty.
M.Pereira has had a direct hand in 5 of West Brom’s 7 goals all within the last four GW’s. Over the same period, he has the most goals (4) and he is joint-second for most shots on target (5). If he can continue his recent run of form he could be a major value differential. West Brom faces Sheffield United (A) and the bookmakers’ have priced his chances of scoring to 20%, the highest on his team.
Wilson has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in his last two games – and with 10 goals to his name this season. Only Kane and Vardy (both 12) and DCL and Bamford (both 11) currently outranks him among FPL forwards. Newcastle faces Crystal Palace (H) in Gameweek 22, a team that has conceded the third most away goals (18) and 7 goals in their last three games. Newcastle themselves have attempted the second-most shots (35), created the joint-fourth most chances (26), and scored the joint-fourth most goals (4) over the last three rounds. They have only failed to score twice in their last nine home games – but those were against Chelsea and Liverpool. His chances of scoring are 38%, one of the highest for this round.
This week’s go-to captain is Salah who has the underlying stats, odds, history, and fixtures to return the points. His chances of scoring have been priced to 56% which is higher than any other player – and his impressive record against Brighton counts 5 goals and 4 assists in seven games which provides him another edge. If you’re looking for an alternative option, the most obvious is Bruno Fernandes. However, his match is more challenging on paper than Salah’s one, which means a lower ceiling for fantasy points.
Still not sure who to pick of the two (or anyone else)? Here’s a good rule of thumb: When in doubt, go with the anytime goalscorer odds.
That’s it for our GW22 analysis!