Optimal Probability Lineup
I play multiple DFS sports and I like to try and reduce each slate to a maths problem. That might sound dull but I believe it’s the best way to win over the long term. All DFS sports are based around random events which no-one can accurately predict. However, every event has a probability and I use these to help me build lineups in other DFS sports. So why not on FanTeam?
The main three scoring events in FanTeam are a goal, an assist, and a clean sheet. The probability of a player scoring a goal and a clean sheet can be worked out using bookmaker odds. Some sites provide this information for free. Assists are trickier things to work out but games with more goals give players more opportunity to get an assist. Thankfully this is factored into goalscoring probability so we can use that instead.
Using these probabilities in conjunction with the FanTeam scoring system, I’ve produced a ranking for each player currently listed as expected to play. I then work out the optimal lineup and the optimal formation based on these rankings.
Obviously, as with all probability-based predictions, it’s not likely to produce the optimal lineup on any single week. However, over time it should give your lineups the best chance to score points.
Gameweek 27 Optimal Formation
After running the numbers, defensive formations score higher than others. 5-4-1 and 5-3-2 account for the majority of the top 20 lineups. This might be due to the midweek slate having such low-scoring games that the probabilities for clean sheets are higher than they would be normally.
Gameweek 27 Optimal Lineup
The lineup produced by the numbers is below. There are two Man City players and two Chelsea defenders which is no surprise. Southampton defenders rank highly in the model as well. To fit them in, Mohammed Salisu (7.2m) is picked but he’s not a certainty to start and has no safety net. Thankfully they are playing in the first game of the slate so we can adjust accordingly and there’s 400k left in the bank for flexibility.
There’s no surprise that Mo Salah (14.8m) and Heung-Min Son (13.4m) appear as they are popular players. Rodrigo (9.8m) and Pedro Neto (8.1m) are great value for their prices in the model.
The highest-ranked player in the lineup is Reece James (9.2m) so he becomes my Captain. Surprisingly, Jannik Vestergaard (7.8m) is next so he becomes my Vice-Captain.
Optimal Players at Each Position
Below are the top five ranked players at each position when factoring in their salary:
Goalkeeper
1 – Mendy – CHE (9.4m)
2 – McCarthy – SOU (8.1m)
3 – Ederson – MCI (9.2m)
4 – Lloris – TOT (10.1)
5 – Alisson – LIV (10.8)
Defender
1 – James – CHE (9.2m)
2 – Vestergaard – SOU (7.8m)
3 – Salisu – SOU (7.2m)
4 – Dunk – BHA (6.8m)
5 – Chilwell – CHE (9.6m)
Midfielder
1 – Salah – LIV (14.8m)
2 – Rodrigo – MCI (8.8m)
3 – Son – TOT (13.4m)
4 – Mahrez – MCI (11.8m)
5 – Neto – WOL (8.1m)
Forward
1 – Ings – SOU (10m)
2 – Kane – TOT (13.5m)
3 – Maupay – BHA (8.7m)
4 – Vardy – LEI (9.3m)
5 – Giroud – CHE (11.5m)
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This article was brought to you by Mark Ferguson!
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