Football

Gameweek 29 Main Event Preview – Data-based approach

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Gameweek 28 Review

The Optimal Probability Lineup (OPL) for GW 28 ended with 50.5 points which were only enough for 2,624 out of 3,619 teams. I feel I was a bit unlucky here as no-one scored in the top 8 most likely players. You also needed Iheanacho, who scored a hattrick, if you wanted to be towards the top of the leaderboard. He did not rank highly in my model.

As I do after every gameweek, I review the model to see if there are any improvements I can make. This week, I’ve added a bit of extra weighting to the projections based on how many goals a team is expected to score. This is partly integrated into the goalscorer odds already but I feel it needed more weight to, hopefully, catch the possibility of hattricks and extra assists.

Gameweek 29 Optimal Probability Lineup

This week’s main tournament isn’t the traditional Weekly Monster as there are only four premier league games. So the Gameweek 29 Main Even is a Pursuit contest. You can find more info about this format here.

The main differences are you’re not restricted by a salary cap, each player starts with a bonus (negative or positive), and you only pick 7 players. You can be completely flexible on the formation you pick as well.

Below is my OPL for this week.

My model is geared towards goalscoring events so it’s no surprise that without the salary cap restrictions, my optimal players are midfielders and forwards. Maupay has the highest negative bonus on the slate. Surprisingly, Kane’s bonus is higher than three Brighton players. This is because Brighton are such heavy favourites against Newcastle but Kane (50%) has better goalscoring odds than Maupay (45%). Factoring in FanTeam scoring, Kane is my highest-ranked player this week with Maupay second.

Gareth Bale is third which makes sense with Son likely to miss out this weekend. I thought Lucas Moura would rank higher but he’s only 19th in my projections. Aubameyang is next even though he has higher goalscoring odds than Bale. Tottenham are bigger favourites than Arsenal and expected to score more goals hence the difference there.

Another Brighton player, Trossard, is fifth. Brighton has a 60% win probability which is why they rank highly but also why they come with a hefty negative bonus. Nicolas Pepe ranks sixth but I’m not convinced he’ll play 90 minutes or even start. I might overrule my projections before the weekend and play Martin Odegaard instead.

Finally, Lookman and Cavaleiro of Fulham are very similarly projected. I’ve gone with Lookman as he’s more likely to play the full 90 minutes.

Top Rated Players in OPL Model

Forwards

1 – Kane

2 – Maupay

3 – Aubameyang

4 – Bamford

5 – Antonio

Midfielders

1 – Bale

2 – Trossard

3 – Pepe

4 – Lookman / Cavaleiro

5 – Gross

Defenders

1 – Dunk

2 – Dallas

3 – Veltman

4 – Alioski

5 – Doherty

Goalkeepers

1 – Sanchez

2 – Areaola

3 – Lloris

4 – Leno

5 – Meslier

Join the action and draft you team now!

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