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GW 29 Optimal Probability Lineup Review
As you recall, Gameweek 29 was a four-match slate so the main contest was a Pursuit game. Although my model is designed around the Weekly Monster 11-man format, it still performed better than expected. The #1 ranked lineup, in my last article, came 244th out of 850. Everyone scored a goal or an assist other than the two Arsenal players which let it down. Encouragingly, my #2 ranked lineup came in 88th which was enough for a nice profit.
GW30 Optimal Probability Lineup
Thankfully the Weekly Monster is back after the international break. I’ve been using the break wisely and have added a stacking element to my model. Everyone knows the key to taking down a Weekly Monster is stacking so this was a function I’ve been desperate to add since I started on this journey.
You may be wondering why stacking is so important? For me, it reduces the amount of decisions I have to make and more importantly, the amount of decisions I have to get right. For example, if you are playing 11 random players, you are effectively playing an 11-player accumulator at the bookmakers. Whereas if you are stacking, you are reducing the ‘legs’ in your accumulator.
These weeks OPL lineup is below. The stacks are Liverpool, Man City, Southampton and West Ham.
As every week so far, Mo Salah (11.3m) is my model’s highest projected player. He’s joined by Diogo Jota (10.1m) who has a 39% goalscoring probability. Nathaniel Phillips (7.2m) is a cheap defender on a team with a 44% win probability. He offers great value on this slate.
Southampton face Burnley and have a 40% clean sheet probability. So it makes sense that the model chose Fraser Forster (8.3m) and Jannnik Vestergaard (8.1m). They are a great price and allow you to pay up elsewhere. James Ward-Prowse (10m) is always a popular choice in fantasy sports, no matter what the format. He has great assist equity as well as goalscoring probabilities.
Man City travel to Leicester in a game which looks close on paper. However, the bookies give City a 64% win probability and a 45% clean sheet probability. Stones (9.1m) and Cancelo (9.4m) benefit from those odds. Raheem Sterling (12.7m) is in my lineup even though Gundogan (12.4m) rates slightly higher. Because of Pep roulette, I think it’s safer to play the higher priced player.
Finally, West Ham duo Lingard (9m) and Antonio (9.5m) make the cut. West Ham players have offered great fantasy value in 2021 and these pair have been in form.
Top Rated Players in OPL Model
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