Football

The Underlying Perspective: FanTeam Weekly Monster [GW3]

Here is nevermind721 with a preview for GW3 on Fanteam. One of the most successful and experienced players on the platform with €50K+ in profit shares his picks and recommendations in his trademark witty manner. Get your beer and sausages ready and read on to find out what’s on the fantasy menu this week.

🌭 Bratwurst of the Week

Aston Villa re-invested their Grealish capital and bought three different weapons: A smart, proven and technically strong striker, a lightning-fast winger and an ingenious playmaker. For the protocol, I really like the players, furthermore I think these pieces are complementary and should fit together beautifully.

The drawback: It might take time to gel. Setting up a completely new offense is not done within a few weeks (that works only on FIFA Ultimate Team), automatisms need time to develop. Whilst fading Ings in season-tournaments based on this reason already backfired spectacularly into my stupid face, stats seem to suggest that the initial assessment might not have been completely wrong:

Two penalties have bailed them out so far, but otherwise, they looked really harmless. Please keep in mind their opposition has been Watford and Newcastle, not exactly the craziest defensive juggernauts of the league. But Ings really needed to score two goals with three shots (grrrr).

Now they are facing confident Bees.

What sounds like an easy 3:1 win on first glance and thus a beautiful sidestack — or even differential captain stack — might actually become a tough affair.

For around €10m, I will not have too much exposure to Ings and friends (Watkins by the way is still questionable to return before the international break).

This has also to do with the next recommendation,

🙏🏻 Hail Mary of the Week

Hail Mary of the week suggests a differential defense (Clean Sheet odds of 4.0 and above) that might achieve a surprise clean sheet based on underlying stats

Brentford had a strong start on the big stage with four points and two clean sheets. Their solid defense is also backed up by the underlying stats. They seem to exemplify a “bend-don’t-break” defense. Whilst allowing a relatively high amount of shots (29 so far, #14 in the league), they only allowed one big chance (#1 in the league). Take a look at this ridiculous shot map from the Arsenal game:

Arsenal had 24 shots (yellow dots). The very best chance based on xG though was a Martinelli header after a corner (0.12xG). The map of the Palace-game looks similar with one bigger chance. This is backed by the “eye-test”. The defense looks in tune, which is no surprise, as they brought back the main parts of their Championship gang and reinforced it with Ajer ($5.7). They don’t mind being pushed back by their opponent but keep spaces in and around the box very tight.

Now they are playing against a team still seeking their rhythm after a complete revamp. I would not be surprised if they keep the game close with low-scoring totals. The high amount of low-quality shots should give Raya ($6.6) a solid floor. Combine this with sneaky CS upside and it might result in a lot of points for not a lot of money.

🎲 Gamble of the Week

Gamble of the week suggests an overlooked player who might deliver as a relatively low-owned differential

West Ham’s Benrahma and Antonio have sent Hammers’ fans and their season game owners into pure delight with their combined five goals plus four assists in only two games (sounds even crazier when written). They might again be great picks against Crystal Palace, but you don’t need me to tell you that. This section revolves around differentials and one of my favorites plays within the very same team: Tomas Soucek ($10.9).

Wait, let me quickly find a copy-paste for all the jewelry around his name.

Tomáš Souček. There you go.

Whilst everybody will flock to the obvious candidates, Souček might be the sneaky way into West Ham’s strong offense.

Here is a complete list of all midfielders with more shots in the box than Souček until now: Salah, Mane, Traore, Period. This guy is getting into good scoring positions frequently and regularly (similarly to last season). Stack him with Cresswell ($9.9) for set pieces, pray for Antonio/Benrahma to cool down and you might just leave a big junk of the field behind you.

❌ Trap of the Week

Trap of the week revolves around a defense with good clean sheet potential based on odds, where underlying stats however suggest some red flags

The Spurs kept two clean sheets, but they needed luck and bad finishing to get there. Their opponents achieved xG values of 1.9 (City) and 1.5 (Wolverhampton) without finding the net. Wolverhampton amassed 25 shots (!) in the process.

Tottenham’s 43 goal attempts conceded are the most in the whole league.

Clean Sheet odds of around @2.0 might be driven by markets focusing on their great start on paper and their relatively weak opponent Watford. The Spurs’ defense however has looked susceptible enough for me to not “overpick” them on Saturday.

👀 Eye-opener of the Week

Random stuff that might be interesting for Fanteam purposes

Ladies and Gentleman, Adama Traoré ($6.4):

  • #1 in Shots
  • #5 in xG
  • #1 in Players Dribbled Past
  • #2 in Carries into the Box
  • #3 in Touches in the Box
  • #1 in Shot-Creating Actions

People will point to his brutal finishing so far, but before this season, his goal tally has been roughly in line with his expected goals. With him playing incredibly high up the pitch for Lage’s Wolves — almost as an OOP inside forward — countable returns should follow soon. I will already sprinkle him in this week.

If he scores, I might even be able to cope with Ings’ inevitable 1:0 in injury time (deflected shot from 20 yards). 

Enjoy the Monster and good luck! 

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